The trap of inflated expectations in betting

Marita Movsisyan
Sports betting can be considered life in miniature, and therefore all the same life rules and axioms work here only in a shorter time. Everyone who bet on a regular basis could see this.


One common trap in our lives is the high expectations trap. It also exists in bets and it hits very hard, first of all, in the pocket, and subsequently in psychology. Which at least can result in the development of uncertainty and apathy from the betting process, and at the maximum turn into tilt, with losses and gambling addiction as a result.

Where does it all start

Everyone who comes into sports betting is already deceived from the very beginning, namely about the illusion of the ease of winning in betting. It only takes a few winning bets and it’s easy to get euphoric about how simple everything is. But we know that this is not the case, and the sooner the player understands this, the better it will be for his bankroll.

Reading materials on the topic of rates, you have probably come across the statement more than once that even 60% on an equal line (1.93–1.93) is already an excellent result at a distance. American adherents of rates also have more modest figures – 53-55%. But for inexperienced players, such indicators seem simply ridiculous, they are simply not interested in even calculating such a trifle.

At the same time, even for such indicators, you need to make a lot of efforts, but what is there, there are really few to stay at the break-even point level. As a result, disappointment from betting even on the initial path, and then futile attempts to recapture the lost.

Self-confidence is to blame, because almost all sports fans believe that they understand it, and many are unaware that in order to be successful in betting, you first need to understand numbers and count well in any situation. Understanding the sport and the nuances of tournaments will certainly not hurt, but it will not be key, otherwise all former athletes and sports journalists would have succeeded in this matter, and as we know, this is far from being the case.

Express trains are like a litmus test of your self-confidence

For the same reason, express trains are so popular. Yes, I already wrote earlier that they are far from always evil and can even be useful, but in general, express trains will bring a minus at a distance. At the same time, among the players, it is express that is a popular type of bet just due to the trap of inflated expectations. It seems that by collecting several matches in an equal line or a chain of favorites, you can increase the initial bet by several times. At the same time, it is not taken into account that the margin of bookmakers, like the probabilities, is multiplied in the same way as the coefficients, and this is reflected in the mathematical expectation, because no one has yet canceled the theory of probability.

In other words, if you consider accumulator as the main type of bet, then you are either a fool or an overconfident and arrogant player. In both cases, you will have to pay for this out of your own pocket.

Distance is everything

In a short period of time, you can show a very fat plus with a cosmic ROI, but this does not mean at all that you can already make a business plan with the expectation of such numbers in the distance. It is clear that the trap of high expectations will inevitably close at such a moment – not a single player’s ego will withstand the test of overwhelming success in a series of bets. However, a distance of 1000, and preferably 10,000 bets (the 10,000 hour rule in action) will bring you back to reality and show your level.

And we also take into account that on your part there will be not only gaming, but also financial discipline, which means that you will play on a bankroll. Here I will immediately voice the unpleasant – millions from bets do not shine for you, unless you bet millions. Yes, with a professional approach, you can earn a full life, but only the best, real pros can claim it, who still have to compete for the money won with the bookmaker on the verification fields.

No one wants to give up their money just like that, and bookmakers are ready to hinder the success of players with any available tricks.

What can we say, if some bookmakers, having discovered that female players lose less and win more often than men, have become much more attentive to the accounts of female players.

They are much more scrupulous in reducing women’s account maximums by 10 times compared to men’s accounts and check them more often.


It is important to keep your head in sports betting. Yes, it’s a mind game, but a game of chance. Any deviation from the plan will result in losses. Losses bring moral pressure, and high expectations will inevitably bring disappointment. As they say there – in order not to be strongly disappointed, it is better not to be strongly fascinated. This also applies to sports betting. Keep this in mind and you’ll have one less problem. Play, but play for fun, not to win. Wishing everyone a profit!




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