Peterborough v Notts County: Thomas Giles’s Tip

This FA Cup replay between League One play-off pushers Peterborough United and League Two strugglers Notts County finished 2-2 in the original fixture. The reward for coming through Tuesday night’s match is a glamour tie away at Premier League leaders Chelsea in the new year.

The Posh have been on a good run since their draw against Notts County in the FA Cup and have won two in two league matches since then which has seen them push into the play-offs. In fact, Grant McCann’s team had been doing well in the league before their cup match, winning five of their last six.

We usually associate Peterborough sides with goals and they have produced some excellent attacking players over the years. Whilst this has once again been the case this season having found the back of the net 35 times in 21 matches – the third highest in the division – they have also been good at the back, particularly in recent weeks with three clean sheets in the last five games.

After a poor record at home toward the start of the season, McCann’s side have improved at the ABAX Stadium in the last few matches and have claimed victory in five of their last seven matches on home turf. Additionally, the Posh will have extra confidence going into this match as they have a good record at home in the FA Cup. Last year they were unlucky to be knocked out on penalties by Premier League West Bromwich Albion but have come out on top in six of their last nine FA games at the ABAX.

Notts County are on a slippery slope in League Two and the world’s oldest football club now sit a mere point above the relegation zone having lost their last six league matches on the trot. This match against Peterborough, in which they are underdogs, provides a welcome distraction from their troubles.

County have not been too bad going forward this season with 25 goals scored in 21 outings, however, they have been atrocious at the back with their record of 36 against being the worst of any side in the bottom five – subsequently also making their goal difference the worst in the bottom five.

In complete opposite fashion to Tuesday’s opponents Peterborough’s home form, John Sheriden’s men were immense on the road at the start of the season but their away form has down spiralled in recent times, losing all three of their most recent matches away from Meadow Lane.

The Magpies have been terrible in the FA Cup for a number of seasons and required a replay to get passed non-league Boreham Wood this campaign. Before that victory against The Wood, the last time Notts won an FA Cup fixture was all the way back in November 2012 – a seven game winless streak in the competition.

Of course both of these sides will be highly motivated going into this match given the prize of facing Chelsea in the third round. However, I cannot see anything other than a Posh win here given the form of both sides, not only recently, but in the FA Cup too. Furthermore, there is a clear gulf in class between the two teams which should be evident on Tuesday and thus ‘Peterborough to Win to Nil’, at 23/10, is a great bet to be on.

Click here to see Tuesday’s Bundesliga tip.