Gabriele Marcotti Beginner

About

Gabriele Marcotti is an England-based Italian sports journalist working for ESPN, the Times, Corriere dello Sport and Sunday Herald. Marcotti is also a writer. Among his books are Paolo Di Canio's autobiography of 1999, 2006's "The Italian Job: A Journey to the Heart of Two Great Footballing Cultures" (written along with Gianluca Vialli), and "Capello: Portrait of a Winner" (2008), an unauthorized biography of the Italian football coach Fabio Capello. He joined our team of pundits in November 2015 to give his view on the English Premier League and Serie A.

Germany v France: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip

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Germany v France: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip

Not much separating these two at all in the markets. I think this may be down to Germany’s absentees: Mats Hummels is suspended, Mario Gomez and Sami Khedira are injured and Bastian Schewinsteiger is likely to miss out too. That is a lot to give up and it’s bound to affect the team. Replacing Hummels is not a huge deal: Shkodran Mustafi did it well in the opener and you also have Beni Howedes. Gomez means there is no plan B. You’re looking at either Mario Goetze or Thomas Mueller at center forward and neither has played well in this…

Portugal v Wales: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip

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Portugal v Wales: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip

Portugal haven’t actually won a game in the 90 minutes and even the dramatic winner against Croatia didn’t come until deep into extra-time. In fact, throughout this tournament, they’ve only been in the lead for 22 minutes: 19 of them against Iceland and 3 against Croatia.  This is clearly not a side firing on all cylinders. The suspension of William Carvalho won’t help, but it’s not a tragedy either: against Gareth Bale, his likely replacement will be the more mobile Danilo. Wales, of course, will be without Ben Davies and Aaron Ramsey, both suspended.  Andy King comes in for Ramsey…

France v Iceland: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip

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France v Iceland: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip

I hate to be the spoilsport here, but I can’t see how Iceland’s run can continue. Not against the host nation, not when they have so much talent, not when they showed they can come back like they did against Ireland. There’s obviously not much value in backing France, but a big win is a possibility (and some insurance against an Icelandic upset) which is why I like over 2.5 goals at 2.15. France to win and both teams to score at 4.2 is also a neat play, given the nature of France’s defending in this competition. Get all of…

Wales v Belgium: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip

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Wales v Belgium: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip

Two very different sides, Belgium clearly favored by the bookies. Wales are well organized and have a superstar in Gareth Bale, but Belgium have several superstars and, well, are more about individual talent. Still, once they go ahead, they can score plenty on the break as they showed against Ireland and Hungary. Equally, Wales are always a threat to score – in fact, they’ve scored in every game thus far and have had over 2.5 goals in three of four matches. Overall the one thing that sticks out is that both teams are very adept at playing on the counter…

Germany v Italy: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip

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Germany v Italy: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip

Germany are hitting their stride and looked impressive in the 3-0 dismantling of Slovakia, even if the opposition did provide next to no resistance. Likewise Italy looked good too against Spain. So here we have an interesting match-up. There are two key factors here in my opinion. If Germany play Gomez up front it could make them more one-dimensional, as well as play into the Italians hands. It was OK against weaker defences, but i’m not sure it makes sense here. And a lot will depend on how Italy are physically. Most starters had an extra game’s rest against Spain,…

Poland v Portugal: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip

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Poland v Portugal: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip

The prices have Portugal as favorites here and it seems a bit excessive to me. They did create plenty against Iceland and Austria, but when faced with a well organized side like Croatia, they faltered. Obviously they came through against Croatia, but they created little in the way of chances in 90 minutes and scored late in extra time through a counter-attack. Poland have a strong defence (the only goal they’ve conceded thus far was Xherdan Shari’s wonder-strike and are very well put together by Adam Nawalka. The only downside is that Robert Lewandowski and Arkadiusz Milik have been somewhat…

Italy v Spain: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip (VIDEO)

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Italy v Spain: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip (VIDEO)

This hinges on how Italy defend. If they get sucked back into the safety blanket of deep defending, then Spain can pass circles around them and, likely, eventually break through. If they actually attack and engage then it could take a different turn. Especially if Italy can impose a higher tempo on the game. In this, they’re aided by the fact that most of the front six took the third group game off, whereas Del Bosque kept the same lineup. But the loss of Candreva is a blow to Italy. Not easy to find value, but over 2.5 goals, in…

England v Iceland: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip (VIDEO)

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England v Iceland: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip (VIDEO)

The Icelandic story has captured everybody’s imagination. And, yes, it is a great tale. But it’s also true that they conceded plenty of chances in the groups, particularly against Portugal. And that while the deep defending doesn’t suit England’s game, the gap in quality is bigger, I think, than many realize. It could take Hodgson’s crew a while to break down that stout Icelandic defence, but they really ought to have enough quality to do so. On this basis the way to play this one is to go for the second half as the half for the first goal at…

Argentina v Chile: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip (VIDEO)

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Argentina v Chile: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip (VIDEO)

Argentina are odds on here, despite both their injuries and Chile’s impressive performances leading into this final.  We’ve been here before and the Argentines have suffered heartbreak against Chile before. In this final just one year ago to be precise. That game went all the way and I don’t think this one is getting resolved in 90 minutes either, and, what’s more, given the attacking oomph on both sides, there’s a good chance they’ll both get on the scoresheet. I’d take the draw and both to score at 7/2. All our today’s tips are here. Single: Lost Argentina v Chile…

Hungary v Belgium: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip (VIDEO)

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Hungary v Belgium: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip (VIDEO)

A lot here depends on which Belgium we get, “good Belgium” or the one we saw against Italy.  What we do know is that Marc Wilmots won’t change his tactic so we’ll get Belgium attacking, perhaps a bit disorganized, but on front foot anyway. Hungary have surprised many and, of course, put three past Portugal. But there’s a reason they were rank outsiders. Again, I’m thinking over 2.5 goals at 13/8, a generous price and something more than likely if Belgium score early. Enhanced odds! To get ‘Lukaku To Score & Belgium To Win’ @ 2/1 (was 13/8) click here. …

France v Republic of Ireland: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip (VIDEO)

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France v Republic of Ireland: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip (VIDEO)

France are solid favorites here as you’d expect. They are the hosts and although they haven’t played especially well, they’ve managed to come through to the knockouts with relative ease. I find it tricky to find value in this one. Republic of Ireland are capable of defending in numbers and being physical but a lot will depend on the officiating here and I don’t see it going their way. With the bookies all leaning towards the under, I’m going overs again. There is the possibility of a big France win and also Ireland getting on the scoresheet, especially if they…

Germany v Slovakia: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip (VIDEO)

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Germany v Slovakia: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip (VIDEO)

Germany are clearly favorites here and it’s not surprising. But I wonder if there’s value in going the other way. The fact is that Slovakia showed they can defend in numbers. And with Germany going with the big center forward option (Mario Gomez is expected to start) it’s a decent match-up with Martin Skrtel. The Slovak midfield matches up well physically too and a price of Slovakia +1 at 17/10 is too good to pass up. Enhanced odds! To get ‘Thomas Muller To Score & Germany To Win’ @ 2/1 (was 7/5) click here. Here are all of our EURO 2016…

Portugal v Croatia: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip (VIDEO)

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Portugal v Croatia: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip (VIDEO)

Croatia are favorites here, probably on the strength of beating Spain.  But I also think they could well pay a price for what’s happening off the pitch between the Ultras and the federation. Caught in the middle are the players and it simply adds another unwelcome layer of pressure. Portugal, and especially Ronaldo, were heavily criticized for not winning a single game during the group stages, but they created plenty of chances, especially against Iceland and Austria. And now that Ronaldo is on the scoresheet, it’s hard to see him slowing down. Back Portugal at 3.1 or, for more value,…

Switzerland v Poland: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip (VIDEO)

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Switzerland v Poland: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip (VIDEO)

I really like how Poland’s strikers, Milik and Lewandowski match up against this Swiss defence which is gifted, but slightly sluggish, especially Schar. Poland have shown they can do the war of attrition thing and grind games out but they also have creativity, maybe more than Switzerland, who were decidedly average during the group stages, as well as perhaps being slightly lucky at times. And they have a definite edge on set pieces too. Look for Poland to wrap this up in 90 minutes at 17/10. Enhanced odds! To get ‘Lewandowski To Score & Poland To Win In 90 Mins’ @…

Wales v Northern Ireland: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip (VIDEO)

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Wales v Northern Ireland: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip (VIDEO)

I’m struck by the over/under market. There’s a perception that Northern Ireland are just uber-defensive, park the bus types. And that’s what they were against Germany and Poland. But that’s not how they played against Ukraine and there’s no guarantee that they’ll do that in this game. Also, even with park the bus sides, an early goal opens everything up and Wales can be devastating on the counter. For that reason – and the fact that Wales hit the overs in two of three group matches – plus the hugely generous 21/10, I’m going with over 2.5 goals here. All…

Sweden v Belgium: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip

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Sweden v Belgium: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip

Belgium went from being out-thought and outplayed by Italy to romping past Ireland.  It’s fairly obvious they are one of the most talented sides in the competition and the only thing that can stop them is when Wilmots is outsmarted. Sweden did have Italy in knots in the second match and while Erik Hamren isn’t a tactical genius, he can put out a well-organized side. Still, if Belgium score first, things will open up in what could be Zlatan Ibrahimovic’s last hurrah. For that reason and to hedge for Zlatan’s scoring, I’m going with over 2.5 goals at 2.10. Single:…

Hungary v Portugal: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip

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Hungary v Portugal: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip

A point might be enough for Portugal and by the time they take to the pitch for this third and final group match, they’ll have a pretty good idea of what it is they need to make it through. Still, they need to win to win the group and I think it’s within their reach. They’ll be more determined than ever as they approach this one after being held to two frustrating draws against both Iceland and Austria. Games in which they dominated without really finding a cutting edge. Although they did lack a killer instinct in the final third,…

Croatia v Spain: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip

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Croatia v Spain: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip

Events at Croatia’s last two games, with a portion of fans actively trying to misbehave so as to get the country punished and possibly knocked out in protest at the actions of some Croatian FA leaders are bound to affect this match.  The question is how?  Spain have been perhaps the only major country to have played well in both games thus far.  There’s no real reason to expect that will change.  And, in fact, Spain have thus far created more chances than they’ve buried. That’s why I like Spain -1 goal on the handicap at a generous 3/1. Single:…

Czech Republic v Turkey: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip

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Czech Republic v Turkey: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip

It’s the last throw of the dice here for both teams and a win makes no difference. In fact, for Turkey, even a win is unlikely to keep them in the tournament, given their goal difference. This makes me lean squarely towards the Czechs. They may have issues at the attacking end, but they know what they need to do and are focused. After their late comeback against Croatia they should be full of confidence and they will also know that a win would give them a very strong chance of going through in as one of the best third…

Northern Ireland v Germany: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip

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Northern Ireland v Germany: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip

Having watched Germany fail to get a shot on target against Poland, I was curious to see how the markets would price up Jogi Loew’s men against Northern Ireland.  Germany remain overwhelming favorites so there’s no value there.  It feels as if it’s only a question of how long Northern Ireland can hold out.  If Germany score early, this could be a blow out. If they don’t, then have Northern Ireland got a realistic chance of getting something from this game? Germany will undoubtedly play this game on the front foot, and, although N.Ire can defend well, they have enough…

Slovakia v England: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip

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Slovakia v England: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip

England created plenty of opportunities going forward in both of their opening games and, for a side that relies so much on confidence and emotion, the late winner against Wales somewhat balanced out the late equalizer against Russia. The mood around the England team is now completely different and you get the feeling that they are now very confident ahead of this final group game. Slovakia also played really well against Russia, creating chances and scoring two very smart goals. And the midfield  with Kucka and Hamsik can certainly disrupt England’s if they get it right.  The Slovaks are also…

Russia v Wales: Gabriele Marcotti betting tip

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Russia v Wales: Gabriele Marcotti betting tip

The markets are very finely balanced on this one. Russia began both games thus far poorly and I expect coach Leonid Slutsky to ring changes. It’s tough to tell which Russia will show up, the one that showed in the second half against Slovakia that can create chances or the ponderous, sluggish one of the first half. The Russians need a win though, which means they really ought to attack and go for this one. This can therefore create opportunities for both sides. Over 2.5 goals is a whopping 2.50 and that looks tasty to me. All of Gabriele Marcotti’s…

Switzerland v France: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip (VIDEO)

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Switzerland v France: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip (VIDEO)

France obviously had a few wobbles against Albania just as they did against Romania in the opener. That’s why I guess they are not as big favourites as I would have expected. But Switzerland simply aren’t going to defend as well as Albania managed too in my opinion. They’ll feel the pressure to go for a win since a place in the Round 16 is pretty much locked up. And in all honesty I can see France winning again here, maybe going for France -1 goal handicap, that’s pretty generous at 5/2. If Switzerland attack which is likely, there should be plenty…

Belgium v Ireland: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip (VIDEO)

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Belgium v Ireland: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip (VIDEO)

Belgium can’t possibly be as badly organized as they were against Italy. It’s simply not viable. Even though Italy defended well and Belgium played poorly, the thing is Belgium still carved out opportunities. I expect the same to happen here, even though Belgium will be under pressure after the defeat in the opener. Belgium will undoubtedly attack and with the quality they’ve got it would be surprising if they didn’t score, although Ireland can also cause a threat, particularly on the counter. I really like the look of over 2.5 goals at EVS in this one. All the other Gabriele’s…

Iceland v Hungary: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip (VIDEO)

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Iceland v Hungary: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip (VIDEO)

The bookmakers name Iceland as favourites here – it’s all because of the result of the draw against Portugal, no doubt. That was very impressive indeed, and it’s a great story. But I wonder if maybe they can be a little bit carried away here. I thought that game could have easily ended with a big win for Portugal, and if that happened, nobody would be making Iceland a favourites here. Hungary on the other hand are coming off a 2:0 win over Austria. Tactically this one will be interesting as both teams played on the break in their opening games, but…

Spain v Turkey: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip

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Spain v Turkey: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip

Spain got some criticism for “sterile possession” in their opening game against the Czechs, but some of it was over the top. First, it’s less of a concern when you don’t create chances – and Spain did create plenty, they only failed to finish – and second the Czechs parked the bus. I’m not sure Turkey will do that after their opening day loss to Croatia. Turkey aren’t built for that anyway.  I’d lean towards over 2.5 goals at 1.91, though I don’t like backing odds-on so a better option is Spain to win and and both teams to score…

Germany v Poland: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip

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Germany v Poland: Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tip

I don’t think Germany are quite where Jogi Loew wants them to be. Against a fairly unremarkable Ukraine it took a set piece and an injury time counter to score.  Poland’s use of two center forwards was a bit clunky against hyper defensive Northern Ireland, but they should enjoy more space against the Germans. There’s also plenty of aggro here as well. The Germans will look to play on the front foot and dictate the game, as they always do, but these tactics could suit Poland down to the ground. Against Germany in qualifying it was in fact these tactics…

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