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UFC Vegas 48 – Johnny Walker vs Jamahal Hill Predictions and Betting Tips
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[ Light Heavyweight Division Presented by @BattleMotors | #UFCVegas48 | Feb 19 | LIVE on @ESPNPlus ] pic.twitter.com/uqO4sgPVbq
— UFC (@ufc) February 17, 2022
Johnny Walker vs Jamahal Hill
This battle of Light Heavyweight contenders was moved up to the main event after visa issues caused the cancellation of Rafael Dos Anjos versus Rafael Fiziev.
Not to be confused with the famous whiskey of the same name, Johnny Walker (18-6), like the whisky, packs a punch. The six-foot-six Brazilian emerged on the UFC scene in 2018 with a highlight reel of flashy knockouts that had him touted as the next big contender at 205 pounds.
However, three losses in his last four matches has seen his star fall somewhat. His last defeat was a unanimous decision against former title challenger, Thiago Santos, a man who pushed Jon Jones to his limit and who many thought actually beat Jones.
Some comfort can be taken in that, as Walker looks to show what he learned from that experience. Although he has lost more than he has won lately, a few more wins – starting with Hill – could catapult Walker into the title picture as the 205-pound division is wide open.
Jamahal Hill (9-1 1NC) rebounded from a TKO loss -and his first professional loss – against Scotland’s Paul Craig, with a knockout of rising Australian contender Jimmy Crute in just 48 seconds which earned him Performance of the Night honours.
Prior to the loss to Craig, Hill defeated former title challenger Ovince Saint Preux by TKO, establishing himself as one to watch in the coming few years.
Hill is less experienced than his opponent Walker, but if his right hand can land flush on Walker’s jaw in much the same way it did Crute’s, then Hill is more than capable of coming out with a win.
Prediction
As this fight is now the main event, it has been moved up to a five-round fight on less than a weeks’ notice. Both men have knockout power, and I don’t think this subtle change will make much difference as this fight was unlikely to reach the distance anyway.
Of the two fighters, Hill is more likely to implement a calm approach and although Walker holds a three-inch reach advantage, it could be Hill that is more likely to implement the jab as Walker looks for more flashy techniques and a highlight reel knockout.
Four out of the last six of Walker’s fights have ended in the first round, three of the last four of Hill’s have also. In a tight contest, the over/under rounds line is normally a go to. However, the odds on display for both the over (1.67) and under (2.1) 1.5 rounds line offered are not good enough to back, as this could go either way.
Instead, we advise backing Walker to win at 3.3. Hill is an overwhelming 1.33 favourite; however, we believe this does not fairly reflect the abilities of Walker who also carries an experience edge.
At that price Hill would have to beat Walker four out of five times to guarantee profit, this does not represent value and the odds should be a lot closer.
If you don’t know, now you know.@JohnnyWalker vs @JamahalH is LIVE SATURDAY on @ESPNPlus! #UFCVegas48 pic.twitter.com/zfPxHTX2a7
— danawhite (@danawhite) February 18, 2022
Joaquin Buckley vs Abdul Razak Alhassan
The opening fight of the main card sees two middleweight knockout artists go head-to-head as Joaquin Buckley (13-4) takes on Abdul Razak Alhassan (11-4).
Similar professional records are on display, but Buckley is the younger fighter by nine years.
Buckley is known for the spinning back kick knockout of Impa Kasanganay which won him multiple Knockout of the Year awards in 2020.
Including that fight, Buckley is 3-1 in his last four fights with all wins by knockout and also earning him Performance of the Night bonuses.
Alhassan came bursting onto the scene in 2016 winning four out of his first five UFC fights. Since then, he lost three fights in a row before rebounding last time out with a head kick victory over Alessio Di Chirico.
In a strange circumstance of MMA math, Di Chirico’s last fight before losing to Alhassan was a win over Buckley also via head kick.
Every one of Alhassan’s MMA wins has come by KO/TKO, while for Buckley ten out of his 13 wins have come by the same result including his last five wins.
Prediction
In addition to Alhassan finishing all of his wins, all of those wins have come within the first round. Since entering the UFC, Buckley has not yet gone the full distance inside the Octagon.
However, the odds on this fight not lasting the distance are a paltry 1.36. So, there may be better value in choosing your winner and backing them to win inside the distance.
Both fighters stand at 5”10 which is short for the Middleweight division, Buckley carries slight reach advantages.
Alhassan had lost three in a row prior to his last win but two of these were in the Welterweight division where Alhassan failed to make weight, it is likely that the way he would have depleted his body during the weight cut could have played a part in this.
His next loss was in the Middleweight division, but it is possible that his win last time out shows he has now settled in the 185-pound division.
Alhassan is the outside bet at 2.38, we believe the odds should be closer than that. Buckley winning would not be a shock either, but the value is in Alhassan’s price.
All of Alhassan’s wins in his professional career have come in the first round. A first round win can also be backed at 5.5.
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