Real Madrid – Manchester City. Mark O’Haire’s prediction

The first leg tie in Manchester produced plenty of shadow boxing but Wednesday’s second leg clash in Madrid should see the gloves come off as Real Madrid and Manchester City look to land a fatal Champions League knockout blow.

Real were the main aggressors in a timid fixture last week, especially during the second period when Zinedine Zidane’s troops – minus Cristiano Ronaldo and Karim Benzema – landed 11 shots and created eight chances after the interval. In contrast, the Citizens managed just one on-target attempt in the whole 90 minutes.

But City’s best opportunity to take a hold of the tie now looks beyond them and the Premier League’s first Champions League semi-finalist since 2012 have history and stats against them as they bid to outmaneuver a Madrid team that’s now churned out 10 successive La Liga victories.

Manuel Pellegrini’s men scarified their Sunday encounter with Southampton, leaving big hitters like Vincent Kompany, Kevin De Bruyne and Sergio Aguero out of action, to focus on this contest. But with only 9/29 (31%) of sides to draw 0-0 at home in the first leg of a Champions League knockout tie progressing, it looks a tall order.

Premier League teams have lost eight of their last 10 trips to either Real Madrid or Barcelona and Pellegrini’s group have recorded just two Champions League clean sheets in 19 road trips recently – one of which came against Viktoria Plzen. So keeping Real out at the Bernabeu looks unlikely.

Madrid have W30-D3-L2 in home Champions League ties since 2010/11, racking up a ridiculously good +81 goal difference in those 35 matches. This season the hosts have a perfect 100% Bernebeu record in this competition, scoring 18 and keeping five clean sheets from five.

Los Blancos have also remained unbeaten in nine (W6-D3-L0) against English opposition and so are quite understandable short-priced favourites to clinch their place in a 14^th final of Europe’s premier club competition.

Karim Benzema wasn’t deemed fit enough to play but Cristiano Ronaldo returns and it’s worth noting the Portuguese superstar has scored or assisted 20/26 (77%) of Real’s Champions League goals this season. With Gareth Bale in the form of his life, Los Blancos boast enough offensive options to blast their way into the final.

Zidane’s charges should be ready to rumble but Casemiro’s absence does leave the backline a little exposed and although Madrid’s clean sheet record at home has improved, they’re still far from a stable defensive unit to be able to trust to record clean sheets. Therefore, I’ll happily take a home win alongside Over 2.5 Goals.

I expect this encounter to live up to its billing this time around and I reckon Real will edge the Citizens out despite conceding. Adding the Over 2.5 Goals margin is a safety precaution over the Both Teams To Score angle whilst City have seen three or more goals in 14 of their last 20 away trips on the continent with Madrid joining the goals party in 14 of their past 15 Bernabeu outings.