New Zealand vs South Africa 2nd Test: Prediction and Betting Tips

Key Stats

• New Zealand has never won a Test series against South Africa in 16 previous attempts
• Only three of ten completed Tests at this venue have not seen a batter scoring a century
• A century has been recorded by a New Zealand batter in five of their last six home Test innings
• The Black Caps have claimed a first innings lead in three of the last four Tests against the Proteas
• South Africa have had the lowest first innings opening partnership in five of their last six Tests, with a best of just 14
• South Africa’s last five opening partnerships in away Tests have all been worth fewer than five runs

New Zealand seeking history

A draw or better in the second Test will give the Kiwis their first ever Test series win over South Africa. But their minds will be on more than that. Currently, and only just, ranked second in the ICC World Rankings, a win would be an important kickstart to their hopes of retaining the WTC title.

Some questioned whether the home dominance that saw them conquer the world might have faltered after defeat to Bangladesh in Tauranga last month. Between a loss to South Africa in March 2017 and that Bangladesh hiccup, New Zealand had gone unbeaten in 16 home Tests.

The ability to win without legends

The first Test pushed NZ into unknown territory. It was the first time for over 14 years that they entered a Test match without captain Kane Williamson (injured elbow), strike bowler Trent Boult (paternity leave) and all-time leading Kiwi run-scorer Ross Taylor (retired).

To beat South Africa by an innings and 276-runs is testament to the strength in the host’s squad. It was a complete mauling.

Trent Boult missed the first Test for the birth of his third child. The lack of recent bowling has led to him being rested to avoid injury.

Consequently, New Zealand have kept an unchanged 15-man squad for the second Test. Allrounder Rachin Ravindra is the only spin option in the squad.

The strength of Matt Henry’s Play of the Match 0performance has made resting Boult an easy decision for head coach Gary Stead. Henry became the only man to ever take a seven-wicket haul and score a half-century batting at 11.

Along with Tim Southee, who now averages nearly five wickets per Test at the ground at an average of 20.22, the Kiwi pace attack provides little relief.

Go inside the Hagley Oval changing rooms after the 1st @ANZ_NZ Test against South Africa. #NZvSA pic.twitter.com/VBx5IHeSnx

— BLACKCAPS (@BLACKCAPS) February 22, 2022

Black Caps batters fighting for a place when Kane returns

Henry Nicholls loves batting at the Hagley Oval. He’s batted 14 times in Tests there and scored three centuries and averaged 54.00. His 105 in the first Test was pivotal in helping to New Zealand to a massive first innings lead of 387. He’s a great bet to be the top Kiwi batter again and the price is appealing.

Devon Conway is also worthy of consideration in the market. After six Tests he is averaging 65.90, with a top score of 223. The 30-year-old late bloomer made only 36 in the first Test, but steadied he ship and could go on this time.

Tom Latham’s recent scores of 15, 252, 15, 16 & 147 make him a contender, but he is too inconsistent to trust fully. And Daryl Mitchell has only passed 20 once in his last five innings and needs runs to stay in the side when Kane Williamson returns.

South Africa not enjoying away trips

It is the fifth time in six tours since last visiting New Zealand that the Proteas have lost the first Test of a series. That is becoming a trend that is proving tough to shift. Worse still in that period, they have only prevented going 2-0 down at Trent Bridge in 2017.

The two debutants in the first Test made no difference. Opener Sarel Erwee made only 10 and a duck. Bowler Glenton Stuurman managed only one wicket for 124 runs. Captain Dean Elgar and experienced batter Aiden Markram are enduring a lean trot. The tourists could hand a debut to Ryan Rickelton who has averaged 118.25 in first-class cricket this season. Markram is likely to move up to open, where he has enjoyed success in the past.

To be bowled out for totals of 95 and 111 was hugely embarrassing for the Proteas. They will be desperate to right the wrongs of a shambolic first Test display.

They could blame Covid quarantine and a lack of preparation. Fair play, they did not seek those excuses. But ‘must do better’ is highlighted on their report card.

Kagiso key

2/113 was Kagiso Rabada’s return from the first Test, but he can restore Proteas’ hopes. On a track renowned for rewarding top-class pace bowling, Rabada is key to the tourist’s chances. With 235 Test wickets by the age of 26, he is the player South Africa need to step up. And he is the man to back to take the most wickets for his side.

Keshav Maharaj could return to add experience and control, although spinners average a hefty 57.12 at the ground.

Bavuma batter to trust

A diminutive middle-order batter, Temba Bavuma has scored four fifties and a ton in his last six Tests. With South Africa struggling for runs, Bavuma is the pick to top score.

Who wins?

You’d be brave to look past New Zealand. Confidence is high in the Black Caps camp and the tourists will be shellshocked by last week’s massive defeat.

New Zealand probable XI: Tom Latham (capt), Will Young, Devon Conway, Henry Nicholls, Daryl Mitchell, Tom Blundell (wk), Colin de Grandhomme, Kyle Jamieson, Tim Southee, Neil Wagner, Matt Henry.

South Africa probable XI: Dean Elgar (capt), Aiden Markram, Sarel Erwee, Rassie Van der Dussen, Temba Bavuma, Kyle Verreynne (wk), Marco Jansen, Keshav Maharaj, Kagiso Rabada, Duanne Olivier, Lungi Ngidi.