Lorient v Troyes Betting Tips: Ligue 1 side to profit from playing at home

Having lost 2-1 in the first-leg of this play-off, Lorient’s grip on their Ligue 1 status has definitely loosened slightly, but, back in front of their own fans, the top-flight club really ought to fancy their chances of turning things round and thus remaining in the elite division for another season at least.

Nothing can be taken away from the performance of second division Troyes on Thursday night; they defended pretty well for the most part and took their chances when they came. However, you could argue that the hosts were perhaps fortunate to score twice having created little in the way of clear-cut chances, while Lorient were guilty of the opposite as they failed to capitalise on a couple of very promising opportunities.

In all honesty, although they didn’t exactly play poorly in the first-leg, a much improved attacking performance is expected from the Ligue 1 side on their own patch. Bernard Casoni’s men can turn things around at Stade du Moustoir, although, as we saw on Thursday night, defensive frailties mean that they really need to focus on hammering home an advantage in the final third.

The two bets that catch the eye ahead of this second-leg are ‘Lorient to Win & Over 2.5 Goals’ and ‘Lorient to Win & Both Teams to Score’. As eluded to in the first-leg preview, having conceded Ligue 1’s second-highest number of goals, defending certainly hasn’t been Lorient’s main focus this season. However, when it comes to going forward, the Brittany side have actually performed above their station in scoring the tenth-highest number of goals during the regular campaign.

During the first-leg, Lorient did attempt to make the running and enjoyed a majority share of 61% possession. Although the result suggests that it wasn’t exactly their finest hour, the visitors had more shots, more corners and created more clear-cut chances. The result might not have been ideal, but the performance suggested that this Lorient side have enough in the locker to inflict considerably more damage in the second-leg.

One of the main problems for Lorient in the first-leg was that they didn’t quite manage to get the influential Abdul Majeed Waris on the ball enough, but the Ghanian striker proved to be deadly by finishing his one real chance with aplomb. In front of a home crowd, in a match that the hosts are fancied to dominate, the forward should be capable of causing a few more problems. Additionally, Benjamin Moukandjo proved to be a real danger when coming on in the second half and it was the Cameroonian’s delicately weighted pass that set up the goal. It’s highly likely that Lorient’s top-scorer will be deployed from the outset on Sunday night which undoubtedly adds to their threat going forward.

The hosts will also be uplifted by the fact that Troyes are a team who’ve conceded far more on the road than they have at home. The Ligue 2 side come into this fixture having conceded nine goals in their last five on the road and are without a clean sheet in six.

If the first-leg is anything to go by, this probably won’t be a low-scoring affair, especially with the way things are set-up. Lorient are likely to go forward from the off and are certainly expected to do some damage; however, as we’ve seen, they’re a side susceptible to counters and could easily come unstuck at the back. What’s more, five of their last six home wins have seen both ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ and ‘Both Teams to Score’. 

All in all, Lorient know that creating chances (and ultimately scoring goals) is the key to turning this play-off around and they’re fancied to make a better fist of doing so than they did on Thursday night . Having said this, although they’re expected to come out on top on home soil, it would be a surprise if they did so without a few defensive blips.

Click here to see all of Sunday’s tips.