Liechtenstein v Italy Betting Tips

This match is a contrast of footballing histories as minnows Liechtenstein host former World Champions Italy at the Rheinpark Stadion.

Liechtenstein have unsurprisingly never qualified for any major international competition and I cannot imagine that trend stopping any time in the near future. The Liechtensteiners sit bottom of Group G having lost three games, conceding 12 goals in the process. However, the Blue-Reds did manage to score a famous away goal in Israel during their last qualification match as they suffered a narrow 2-1 loss.

As expected Liechtenstein’s record in various qualifying groups over the years is very poor with them finishing bottom of their group on all but two occasions. One of those occasions was in the qualifying campaign for the latest tournament, Euro 2016, when they managed to finish ahead of Moldova after picking up a famous away win in Chisinau before holding them to a draw back home in Vaduz. Additionally, they also managed to hold a far more superior Montenegro side to a 0-0 draw during that campaign.

Although these results are quite impressive given Liechtenstein’s small stature, their recent record makes for terrible reading with six defeats on the spin.

Going into a match against Italy, we can hardly expect this record to improve. This is likely to be a case of damage limitation mixed with enjoying the occasion of playing such a big team.

2006 World Cup winners Italy actually had a pretty good Euro 2016. Although they failed to make the semi-finals, they looked pretty good up until then. Apart from a shock loss in a dead rubber (for them) against the Republic of Ireland and their 1-1 draw with Germany in the quarter finals, Italy won all of their games to nil in a way that only the Italians can. Their display against Mediterranean rivals in the first knockout round Spain was exceptional as they executed a tactical plan to perfection.

Things have changed since then with manager Antonio Conte departing for Chelsea and former Torino manager Giampiero Ventura taking the reins. However, much of that famous core of players remain with the likes of legendary goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon as well as centre back trio Leonardo Bonucci, Giorgio Chiellini and Andrea Barzagli – although the latter two are set to miss this match against Liechtenstein through injury.

With just the group winner guaranteed automatic qualification, Italy face a hard task in toppling Spain in Group G and thus securing a guaranteed place in Russia in 2018. The Spaniards are top of the group at the moment, but the Italians would safely qualify as things stand as the best of the second-best teams.

The Spanish may be top of Group G, but they are only ahead of Italy on goal difference thanks to their thrashing of Italy’s next opponents Liechtenstein. Italy are still undefeated in their three qualification games so far with two victories and a well-earned draw against group favourites Spain. Although they will feel they should have beaten Spain at home, the Italians know the importance of not losing and giving points to your rivals so that result can be viewed as a positive.

Of course there is only one result on the cards here and that is a thrashing by Italy. Ventura’s team may not be traditionally the most attacking side, but they should no doubt be putting their hosts to the sword on Saturday.

There is no previous history between the two teams, but I am not sure that really matters here.

Obviously there is no value on the Italian win so the best place to look are the goal markets. Firstly, I like the look of ‘Italy to Score Over 3.5 Goals’ at a surprisingly eye-catching 5/4. At the end of the day, Spain beat Liechtenstein 8-0 in their match earlier on in the qualifying campaign, so I would be very surprised if Italy fail to net less than four times against this very poor defensive set-up.

Another bet to go for here is ‘Italy to Win by Four or More Goals’ at another surprisingly good price of 6/4. Perhaps the bookmakers, are slightly wary that the Italian front-line lacks firepower, but this should not prove a problem against minnows Liechtenstein. As mentioned above, it would be very poor from the Italians if they fail to score at least four goals on Saturday and they should be more than capable of winning this match by a wide margin.

See more World Cup Qualifier tips here.