Houston Texans x Denver Broncos – Preview, Prediction and Betting Tips 03/12/2023

Denver Broncos

After winning just one of their first six games, the Broncos (6-5 W/L), led by head coach Sean Payton, made a surprising comeback, winning five straight games and putting themselves in contention for a spot in the playoffs. The team is in 2nd place in the AFC West, with two fewer victories than the leaders Kansas City Chiefs. After this game, the team travels to California, where they will face rivals the Los Angeles Chargers in one of the Week 14 games.

Against the Browns’ strong defense, quarterback Russell Wilson was limited to just 22 pass attempts last game, completing 13 for a total of 134 yards and 1 touchdown. Even with a low average of 199.9 air yards per game, Wilson has been very solid in commanding Denver’s offense, completing 68.3% of his passes this season, averaging 6.9 yards per attempt, 20 passes to touchdown, 4 interceptions and a high rating of 103.4.

Houston Texans

In a direct dispute for the leadership of the AFC South, the Texans (6-5 W/L), one of the surprises of this season, who were coming from three consecutive victories, ended up defeated by the Jacksonville Jaguars at home 24-21 in week 12. The team is 3rd in the AFC South, with two fewer wins than the leaders Jacksonville Jaguars. After this game, the team travels to New Jersey, where they will face the New York Jets in one of the Week 14 games.

2nd overall pick in the last draft, C.J. Stroud has not only been the best quarterback in the class, but also boasts the 7th best rating among quarterbacks in the league this year, just behind Russell Wilson, his opponent in this game.

Conclusion

The teams have identical records, but the Broncos are coming off five consecutive victories, which is probably why they are being a little overestimated in this handicap.

I ignored Denver’s improved defense against the pass, but the sample size is now large enough for me to believe, however, the defense still maintains historically poor numbers against the ground game, which limits its potential. The Texans don’t produce well on the ground, but if Stroud can count on the support of the ground game, he will probably be able to exploit the Broncos’ defense, which has improved in the secondary, but still doesn’t put much pressure on the quarterbacks.