Horse Racing Tips: Saturday 14th January 2017
13:40 Wetherby – El Massivo @ 5/1
The 13:40 at Wetherby looks to be an ideal opportunity for Harriet Bethell’s El Massivo to resume winning ways.
The seven-year-old has run a couple of nice races in defeat since winning over C&D back in April of last year and comes into this race with plenty in favour. He’s back down to his last winning mark, has been in decent form of late and returns to the scene of his last victory.
Having disappointed on his first couple of runs this season, it would appear as though El Massivo is now back in the swing of things – his 2nd at Leicester was certainly respectable, while a 4th place finish (in a stronger race this this) over C&D on Boxing Day looks like decent form.
There doesn’t appear to be too much depth in this contest – only three previous Class 4 winners line-up. Quite honestly, in such a field it would be very disappointing if this one failed to get seriously involved.
There’s a number reasons to feel upbeat about El Massivo’s chances in this race and, at odds of 5/1, he’s definitely a horse to side with.
14:40 Kempton – Old Guard @ 25/1 (each-way)
The Lanzarote Hurdle is undoubtedly the highlight of Saturday’s action and racing fans are in for another competitive renewal. However, despite the competitive nature of this race, one who does look somewhat overpriced in the early betting is Paul Nicholls’ Old Guard.
The six-year-old finds himself running off top-weight in a contest that, if at something like his best, could easily be within his grasp.
It’s fair to say that Old Guard hasn’t really lived up to the hype that surrounded him after landing a hat-trick at Cheltenham back in late 2015, but he’s run a few decent races in defeat and certainly wasn’t disgraced when finishing 3rd last time out behind both The New One and My Tent Or Yours. Despite what some people might think, this form looks fairly strong. Although he was someway behind a leading pair who’re much, much better than anything in this event, he ran a nice race and had a couple of good horses in behind him.
The step up in trip is admittedly a bit of an unknown and has naturally been factored into his price. However, he’s often shaped as though it might suit (staying on strongly over 2m 1f in a couple of previous wins) and, let’s face it, if taking to it he should definitely have the class to go well in a field of this nature.
A selection of this type is very much based on a class angle. Old Guard, despite a few disappointing performances, is still only a six-year-old and could easily prove too good for this level. After all, he’s previously a Grade 2 winner and it wouldn’t be the greatest surprise if he was once again able to get competitive in such races.
In all honesty, the price quoted is too big. We’re talking about a horse who’s previously proven himself at a higher level. While it’s not guaranteed that the step-up in trip will be in favour, the drop in class certainly is and, at mammoth odds, Nicholls’ charge is definitely worth a go each-way.
See all of Saturday’s tips here.
Thanks for your help!
We appreciate your alertness!
You've successfully followed this author. You'll get notifications of his new tips on your registered e-mail.
You've successfully followed this expert. You'll get notifications of his new tips on your registered e-mail.
This means that you will no longer receive notifications about new posts by this author to your e-mail address.
You will no longer be notified of this expert's new tips.