Horse Racing Tips: 19th November 2016

12:10 Haydock – Baby King @ 4/1 

If we’re to go by the early betting, coupled with the media hype, then this race is all about the Phillip Hobbs trained Verni. However, despite making fairly light work of two Newton Abbot contests during the last six months, we’re still talking about an unknown quantity and the question to ask is does he merit 2/1 favouritism based on his achievements so far? Probably not. While improvement might be expected, he hasn’t looked the most straight forward and it’s hard to be overly impressed considering the race he won last time out was both weak and lacking in depth.

The one to be on is Baby King. Tom George’s seven-year-old is proven at this level and recorded a good victory in this race last year – a race that looked quite a bit stronger than this renewal.

Since winning this contest last year, it’s fair to say that he’s achieved little, although he did run some races at a higher level and, while he didn’t win, he did put in a couple of respectable performances. Having won on his first ever racecourse appearance, as well as running a good race on his second to last reappearance, it’s clear that the gelding goes well fresh, and so, back down to just 3lbs higher than when winning this race 12 months ago, he has to have a big chance here.

There’s question marks over a number of the runners in this field, especially the favourite, so it’s felt that if Baby King can repeat his best form then he shouldn’t be far away at all.

12:40 Haydock – Aristo Du Plessis @ 9/1

Only six go to post for this Class 2 hurdle but it does look an interesting race. The chief protagonists in the early market all have some decent form to their name, although it is the one chalked up at the highest odds in the betting who really catches the eye.

Aristo Du Plessis simply looks too big in this field and must have a significant chance in this race. The James Ewart trained six-year-old is no stranger to winning and has got his head in front in better races than this one. Having won six times over timber, the gelding already has two wins at Class 2 level to his name – both of which were stronger than this one.

On reappearance two weeks ago, Ewart’s charge didn’t run the best of races but his task wasn’t the easiest – a Grade 2 event probably isn’t an ideal starting place for the season. Having said this, it’s unlikely that connections would’ve entered that race with any ideas of winning and it’s fancied that it was merely a run to blow away the cobwebs before going for a more realistic contest. With this in mind, the six-year-old should now be in better shape and faces much more beatable opposition here.

Aristo Du Plessis’ record in Class 2 hurdle events reads: two runs, two wins. Additionally, this will be his first race back in Class 2 company since winning at Musselburgh in January. It’s felt that connections might just have been running at a better level in order to get his handicap mark back down. At 145, he’s now racing off his last winning mark and, in a race such as this, should be capable of getting really competitive.

Perhaps the added distance today has been factored into his price, although, given the manner in which he’s stayed on strongly over both 16 furlongs and 16 1/2 furlongs, it’s hard to see this being a problem.

All in all, we’re talking about one of the classier types in this race and whichever way you want to spin it, Aristo Du Plessis is simply far too big at 9’s and is well worth supporting.

14:50 Huntingdon – Snowball @ 11/2 (each-way) & Over My Head @ 8/1 (each-way)

Backing two horses in the same race might not be everyone’s cup of tea but in this case it really does appeal as the best way to go. Both selections appear to have standout chances and it would be a real surprise if both don’t run well.

Starting with Snowball, David Arbuthnot’s nine-year-old won this race last year and boasts a decent record at this level. The gelding has twice won in Class 5 events and has turned in several other solid efforts. In terms of quality, last year’s renewal of this race was much stronger and if Snowball turns up here in similar form then he won’t be far away at all.

The fact that this horse doesn’t have the best record when going fresh is perhaps a slight worry, although, regardless of this, it has to be fancied that connections have targeted this race, and, considering how weak the line-up is, Snowball might not need to be fully tuned up to get in the thick of the action.

Moving onto Over My Head. Claire Dyson’s runner is another who really catches the eye here. The eight-year-old has run a number of respectable races in Class 5 events and has generally found himself competing against better animals than the majority of this field.

Having won at this level and placed on several other occasions, this lightly-raced gelding could potentially be well in here now that he’s down to his last winning mark. Unlike others in the race, there’s no question marks surrounding the trip or the ground and he’ll race off a feather weight when Thomas O’Brien’s apprentice claim is factored in. Another interesting pointer here is how well this horse has generally run when fresh – finished a close second on both of his last two reappearance runs, both of which came at Class 4 level.

In a race that certainly lacks depth, there’s plenty to like about Over My Head and he’s another who looks to have a real strong each-way chance.

See all of Saturday’s tips here.