Bristol City v Brighton & Hove Albion Betting Tip

Saturday evening’s Championship clash sees promotion rivals Bristol City and Brighton & Hove Albion come head-to-head at Ashton Gate.

After an excellent run of form before the international break, Bristol City have had a bit of a wobble in recent weeks with just one win in their last five matches in all competitions. Whilst Lee Johnson’s team score plenty of goals and they have only failed to score in just three matches out of 19 so far this campaign, the defence has been rather questionable with 17 goals conceded in just 15 matches. If the Robins want to keep their promotion ambitions alive, then they must find a way of repairing the holes in their defence.

Despite a bit of a bad patch, Bristol City will still be confident ahead this match as they have only dropped points twice at Ashton Gate in the Championship this season and have won their last three home matches on the spin.

However, one big factor against City at home this season has been their first half performances with the Robins still yet to score in the first 45 minutes of a league match at Ashton Gate. This has meant that Lee Johnson’s side often have to come from behind to win or draw matches. This goes back to the previous point of having a leaky defence – you cannot achieve promotion if you have to keep coming from behind in the grueling 46-game Championship season.

Speaking to the media this week, 35-year-old Johnson has said that he may have to start having a go at his players before the match starts in order to rile them up.

Going up against a Brighton side who’re in excellent form, having this sort of goal-scoring monkey on your back is not ideal.

Under the guidance of Chris Hughton, Brighton have been in the promotion mix in the last few seasons without ever making the grade and falling at the final hurdle. We saw this in dramatic circumstances last season when they could have secured automatic promotion on the final day by winning against Middlesbrough. Unfortunately for the Seagulls they could only draw and subsequently lost out in the play-offs.

Surely this season will be the one where they finally make the promised land? So far it is looking that way as the Seagulls sit second in the table and are unbeaten since early September.

We usually associate Chris Hughton teams with excellent attacking football which is incredibly pleasing on the eye. However, this season Brighton have a real steeliness about them and possess the best defensive record in the Championship by some distance with just nine goals conceded in 15 games. A strong defence is the way to get promoted – as I am sure Bristol City may find out to their cost.

As their excellent recent record suggests, Brighton are excellent on the road, winning three of their last four matches away from the AMEX Stadium. Their away form is really where the defensive solidity kicks in with Hughton’s men conceding just one goal on their travels in those last four games.

Unlike Bristol City, this does not mean that Brighton have to waste energy coming back from being a goal down all the time – this saving of energy will really come to the fore when we start to reach the end of the torturous Football League season.

Although Bristol City are good at home and score plenty of goals, I would always back a good defensive side in a vital promotion match like this – even if they are away. Having said that, it does not seem to matter if Brighton are at home or away, they still pick up wins.

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