Bayern Munich – Atletico Madrid. Mark O’Haire’s prediction

It’s advantage Atletico Madrid in the race to reach the Champions League final with Saul Niguez’s flourish of brilliance settling the first leg against Bayern Munich in the Vicente Calderon.

Los Colchoneros have progressed on the last 15 occasions they won as hosts and of the 29 teams to previously take a 1-0 victory in the home first leg of a Champions League knockout tie, a chunky 20 (69%) have managed to see out the second leg.

So I expect Diego Simeone’s side to see the tie out in the Allianz Arena. Put simply, no side on the planet enjoys playing the underdog role more and no side on earth knows how to sit and protect better than the battle-hardened and lion-hearted warriors from the Calderon.

Atletico combine a wonderful blend of organisational excellence, dogged hard work and outstanding efficiency but last week they utilised a supreme advanced pressing system to upset the Bayern applecart. With Diego Godin returning to the fold here, the capital club couldn’t be in better shape for a repeat.

Knives are being sharpened as Pep Guardiola’s footballing obituary at Bayern is already being prepared by the Munich media but the Manchester City-bound boss will know, patience is key if the hosts are to stand any chance of progression – a repeat of their headless chicken antics that were seen against Juventus could and will kill off their treble dreams in an instant.

In the same boat, Simeone will know, the longer Atletico can keep the Germans from scoring, the more likely the game is to open up. And then it comes down to the simple matter of efficiency, so sitting deep and structured for the first 45 minutes will be top of Atleti’s agenda – and those ideals could lead us to profit.

In seven away Champions League knockout ties under the Argentine, the half-time score has been 0-0 on five occasions. A repeat at the Allianz Arena can be snapped up at 2.62 and that looks like a great first port of call in what’s expected to be another chess match between beauty and the beast.

I just can’t foresee a goal-heavy game on Tuesday night and I reckon Bayern could be heading for yet another unexpected early exit in this competition but I’ll take the attractive price on a goalless first interval as my best bet.