Bastia – Nantes. Mark O’Haire’s prediction

Since the start of last season, Bastia have returned outstanding W17-D8-L8 figures when hosting Ligue 1 action and the Corsicans look underrated at 1.91 in the Draw No Bet market for their midweek match with Nantes.

Head coach François Ciccolini remains without injured duo Christopher Maboulou and Gilles Cioni for the Stade Armand Cesari fixture but the superbly organised side have been in great nick of late and deserve outright favouritism here.

The Turchini caused Lorient plenty of problems in their goalless weekend draw with winger Floyd Ayité looking especially dangerous on the counter-attack with his speed and vision key. Defensively, Bastia are one of the league’s tightest teams and in Jean-Louis Leca the hosts boast a goalkeeper in outstanding form.

The Corsicans have kept 12 clean sheets in their 28 outings this term, including in each of their last four, and at Stade Armand Cesari they’ve managed to silence nine of their 14 guests. Exclude results against PSG and Monaco and Bastia have W9-D1-L4 at their island base.

None of the Turchini’s past five visitors have managed to score in Bastia and the home side will be happy to hand over the initiative to Nantes on Wednesday night before attacking incisively when the ball is turned over.

Les Canaris suffered their first Ligue 1 loss of 2016 at the weekend when falling to a 4-1 defeat at local rivals Rennes. Nantes competed well in possession and goalscoring opportunities but slack defensive errors proved Michel Der Zakarian’s men undoing.

Since the turn of the year, Nantes appear to have changed their strategy. Since promotion back to the top-flight, the Yellows have prided their approach on defensive stability. However, in 2016 Der Zakarian has released the shackles.

When things click in Canaris camp, the visitors are dangerous opponents but after exiting the French Cup to Ligue 2 outfit Sochaux and having conceded 10 goals in their last three road trips, the westerners may not have the stomach for what’s expected to be another gruelling arm-wrestle of a match.

Nantes have W8-D10-L15 on their travels since the start of last season, failing to score on 16 occasions. With just a 24% win-rate away from 33 games and Bastia suffering defeats in just 24% of their home fixtures across the same sample, should the hosts be trading at odds as big as 1.91 in the Draw No Bet market? I don’t think so.