Ajax v PAOK / Sparta Prague v Steaua Bucharest: 11/5 Double

We’re at the stage in these qualifiers where things really do start to get serious. Not only do some of European footballs’ bigger names start entering the competition, but every teams knows that if they can progress through to the final qualifying stage then at the very least they will have the chance to play Europa League football next season.

Ajax v PAOK 

First up we take a look at the match-up between last year’s Eredivisie runners up Ajax and PAOK Salonika, who finished fourth in Greece’s top flight.

At first glance this might appear to be a bit of a stroll for the Dutch side. After all we’re talking about a side who, with four European Cups to their name, have real European pedigree. Having said this, they are not the side they once were and although still a regular force in dutch football, as well as being regulars in the group stages of the Champions League, they can no longer lay claim to being one of the big boys of continental football. With this in mind, there is no reason why a capable side, such as PAOK, cannot give them plenty to think about.

The dutch outfit, as the home side, naturally come into this fixture as hot favourites and given their standing, in comparison with their opponents, this is probably fair. However, it’s fancied that this might not be plain sailing for the boys from Amsterdam.

At the prices, it makes no sense to favour the hosts, while a bet on the visitors to win doesn’t make much appeal either. Although, while the visitors might not be worth backing to win this game, it does look to be worth backing them to score at least one goal (as part of a double).

Ajax will undoubtedly try to boss this match. They will dictate possession and play high up the pitch. PAOK will surely be expecting these tactics and thus the focus should be on countering them. They can do this by either coming out and playing a pressing game of their own or by sitting back, staying compact and soaking up the pressure in order to break and exploit the space left in behind by their opponents. It’s reasonable to assume that the latter will be how things play out. These tactics have served the Greek side well in similar European games. Last season they managed to score both home and away against Bundesliga runners up Dortmund.

The fact that Ajax, in recent times, have struggled defensively in European football is also a plus. In last season’s Champions League play-off they conceded five goals over two legs against Rapid Vienna, before going on to concede in five of their six Europa League groups matches.

Sparta Prague v Steaua Bucharest 

Here we see the league runners-up from both Czech Republic and Romania go head to head for a place in the final play-off round and thus a place in the Champions League proper.

We’re talking about two sides who’re both arguably the biggest in terms of European recognition in their respective countries. Sparta have both European Cup and Cup Winners Cup semi-finals on their CV, whereas Steaua, as well as finishing as the runner-up later on, won European footballs’ greatest prize back in 1986.

Once again we’re looking at a first leg that is potentially tough to call. Comparing the domestic exploits of these two doesn’t show any great disparity, nor is it particularly relevant anyway. However, in pre-season, and indeed at the end of the last campaign, it is Steaua who boast the better form. Sparta are without a win in their last four matches (three defeats) and have looked a little sluggish, while their Romanian counterparts are unbeaten in no fewer than 11 games, winning seven of them. Additionally, Bucharest have just won the Cupa Ligii (domestic cup) so are likely to be full of confidence.

From a betting point of view, the way to play this one is to back ‘Steaua Bucharest To Score’ (on a double with the selection above). The Romanian side are in much better form right now and have had that all-important taste of competitive football just nine days ago. On top of this, they’ve only failed to score in two of their last ten away matches. Whereas Sparta have conceded in seven of their last ten at home. The fact that Steaua won 3-0 on their last visit to Sparta Prague, back in 2015, also bodes well.

Click here to see all of our UEFA Champions League qualifier tips.