Manchester Derby Betting Preview

Bradley Gibbs


At 12:30 on Saturday, the Premier League is back with a bang as the Manchester Derby kicks off the weekend’s top-flight action.

Not only will the derby be a first for new managers Mourinho and Guardiola, this renewal is also set to be the most expensive ever, with the combined fees of both line-ups said to be around the £672 million mark.

In the betting it is Mourinho’s side who come in as the 5/4 favourites, while Guardiola’s City can be backed around the 12/5 mark. Considering that both sides have made perfect starts to the new campaign, this disparity in pricing is slightly surprising and it would’ve been a fair assumption to think that the two would be priced closer together in the market.

In other betting, Zlatan Ibrahimovic leads the way in the ‘Anytime Scorer’ market. The mercurial Swede has already scored three league goals in a United shirt and is priced at 11/8 to make it four on Saturday. Kelechi Iheanacho, Wayne Rooney and Marcus Rashford all follow as 9/4 shots to get on the score-sheet, while Man City’s Nolito, having already scored twice in the league, can be backed at 11/4 to score anytime.

Five of the last ten renewals have seen both teams find the net and traders aren’t taking any chances this time around with ‘Both Teams To Score’ priced up at 4/5. Both teams scoring might be seen as a fairly likely outcome here, but the bookies don’t seem to fancy a high-scoring affair at Old Trafford – ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ is available at 21/10, while ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ is priced as short as 8/11. Only two of the last five renewals saw three or more goals go in, while there was at least three match goals in six of the last ten.

From a score perspective, a 1-1 draw is favoured most at odds of 11/2. 1-0 and 2-1 United wins are also popular at 7/1 and 8/1 respectively. For those who think Man City might edge a close game, a 1-0 away victory can be backed at odds of 9/1, while 2-1 or 2-0 away wins can both be backed around the 11/1 mark.

There have already been three penalties awarded for these two sides this season (City = 2, United = 1) and, considering this is likely to be a heated exchange, backing a penalty to be awarded certainly wouldn’t be the worst bet. Punters who’re of this opinion can get on at a general price of 3/1.

Mourinho v Guardiola head-to-head

Mourinho’s typically defensive style is probably a large factor in the pricing of the over/under market and there probably won’t be too many people who feel that this will be a fixture full of goals. Interestingly, though, the head-to-head record between these two managers shows that nine of their 16 meetings ended with three or more goals in the match.

‘Both Teams To Score’ reflects slightly differently. 10 of the 16 meeting’s between the pair have seen both teams hit the net, while both teams have scored in each of the last eight renewals.

It is Guardiola who leads when it comes to the only stat that really matters in this game. Of the 16 meetings, Guardiola has come out on top in seven, while six have ended all-square. This means that, with just three wins, Mourinho has a strike rate of only 18.75% against his adversary.

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