Monty Hall Problem is the best example of people’s inability to correctly weigh up the chances for success, to choose a favourable outcome and put off the two unfavourable.
This is crucial for punters, too. After all, if a person is not able to determine the probability of an outcome looking at the odds and doesn’t understand the value of the bet, he won’t be able to keep favourable balance in the long run.
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A new fancy car is behind one of three doors. Behind the other two there are goats. You have to guess which door the car is behind. However, you do not have the knowledge required to help you understand what is behind the doors. You choose a door, you watch it open, and see a goat behind it. Now you need to decide whether to stick to your initial pick or choose a different door? Monty Hall problem was named after the anchor of a popular TV show in the United States of 60-70s, Let’s Make a Deal. It is a simple mathematical puzzle effectively demonstrates how people find it difficult to make, one would think, a simple choice.
With this simple but tricky puzzle, the US TV show demonstrated how an average person follows his intuition when faced a choice based on probabilities. The same behavior could be observed among common punters. When the puzzle was published in Parade magazine, about 10,000 readers complained that the answer assumed correct by a magazine, was wrong. Among the non-believers were several professors of mathematics.