I’m struck by the over/under market. There’s a perception that Northern Ireland are just uber-defensive, park the bus types. And that’s what they were against Germany and Poland. But that’s not how they played against Ukraine and there’s no guarantee that they’ll do that in this game. Also, even with park the bus sides, an early goal opens everything up and Wales can be devastating on the counter. For that reason – and the fact that Wales hit the overs in two of three group matches – plus the hugely generous 21/10, I’m going with over 2.5 goals here.
All of Gabriele Marcotti’s tips can be found here.