This League One match sees mid-table Northampton take on relegation-threatened Gillingham. The latter team knows that a win here will see them secure survival, but anything less could see them drop down to League Two.
Northampton are on a terrible run at the moment and have now failed to win any of their last seven matches, collecting a measly three points from a possible 21. The flip-flops are firmly on the Northampton players’ feet after safety was secured a long time ago.
The Cobblers’ defence has been woeful this campaign with 73 goals conceded in just 45 matches – the third-worst in the division – whilst they also have the second-worst clean sheet ratio in League One with just 18%. Additionally, they have kept just one clean sheet in their last seven matches. Offensively, Northampton have actually been pretty good and their record of 60 goals scored is the second-best in the bottom half of the table. Having said that, they are struggling to find the back of the net at the moment and have only done so on one occasion in their last three matches.
After a fantastic run of five wins from six at home, Justin Edinburgh’s side have fallen dramatically off the pace at Sixfields with their last three home results reading D,L,D with the Cobblers have scored just twice in that run. In terms of their overall season, Northampton’s defence has been incredibly leaky on home soil having conceded in 77% of their league matches at Sixfields.
Gillingham are suffering similar results to Northampton at the moment having lost their last two matches as well as six of their last eight. Fortunately for them though, they are still in the driving seat in terms of their survival ambitions, although they are just one point above the drop-zone.
Adrian Pennock’s men have had severe problems at the back throughout the course of the campaign and they have the worst Goals Against record in the division with 79 conceded in just 45 matches. In addition to this, they have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 23 games in all competitions. However, they have actually been okay in the final third having scored in all but one of their last five, scoring at least twice in three of those games. Indeed, they were winning against Fleetwood at the weekend until their leaky defence meant they eventually lost.
Away form has been a big problem for the Gills having lost five of their last six. Furthermore, they have won just one league match on their travels since 19th November 2016. That aforementioned poor defence is especially problematic on the road with no away clean sheets all season whilst no team has conceded more away goals than Gillingham – 49.
Despite Gillingham’s poor run, I fancy them to come out on top here. Northampton are unlikely to come out and perform at any reasonable level considering they have nothing to play for. On the other hand, the Gills know that it is all in their hand and that a win will guarantee safety. They’ve been scoring plenty of goals and that extra motivation factor could be huge. Backing an away win is the way to go at 13/10.
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