Germany’s home record in recent friendlies is pretty dire. Lost to England, drew with Australia, lost to the United States, lost to Argentina. You expect a bit of a reaction.
Italy under Conte are coming off a bright performance in the draw with Spain. I think, unlike previous Italy sides, while they’re not as talented, they tend to play through all 90 mins.
For that reason, I like the draw here at 3.20 with William Hill.