Everton have quietly won six of their last eight games in all competitions, yet all is not well with Roberto Martinez. And, to some degree, there is no escaping the fact that they have nothing to play for at this stage, while keeping an eye on the FA Cup semifinal.
You could see them playing looser as a result, whereas Arsenal desperately need to keep up in the title race. A defeat here is the final nail in the coffin.
Furthermore, fifth place is uncomfortably close. You look at the recent run – one win in eight games in all competitions and that was against under-strength Hull City – and you worry for them. That said, I think they’ve played better than their results.
Take Arsenal to win at 2.60 or, for more value, take both teams to score and Arsenal to win at 4.33.