Ecuador are coming off a scoreless draw with Brazil, while Peru huffed and puffed to defeat Haiti, one-nil. The bookies don’t expect much in the way of goals, but I see this a bit differently. This game kicks off after the Brazil match and if the Selecao win big against Haiti (which is entirely possible) then Peru will need to attack, otherwise they’ll need to rely on getting points off Brazil in the final group match. It’s unlikely that Peru will want to rely on a positive result against Brazil to make it through, so you’d expect them to be eyeing up this one as their key game. As mentioned above this means that they’re likely to attack and that opens things up for Ecuador’s pacy forwards, above all Enner Valencia. To me the play is over 2.5 goals at 11/8, a generous price given the circumstances.