The main thing to remember here is that you can’t imagine Pep Guardiola being too clever by half again and leaving out Thomas Mueller like he did at Vicente Calderon. One guy won’t necessarily win a game for you, but he certainly can change it. And with Mueller in the mix, you expect a more open game and a more effective Bayern.
Atleti rested a bunch of players at the weekend, but you get the sense they’re running out of miracles. Bayern will throw everything they have at this one, meaning they’ll threaten going forward, but will be left open at times as a result. Add all this together and I think a bet on over 2.5 goals at 2.05 with William Hill is a good way to play this one.