It’s the fourth time Barcelona and Sevilla play against each other this season. Barca have won two and Sevilla one. It’s usually tight, and each previous encounter between these two this season has been decided by a single goal, back to that crazy 5:4 in the European Supercup. The edge is still overwhelmingly with Barcelona. The midweek Europa League final took a lot out of Sevilla and of course Barca can win the double and that matters a lot to both Luis Enrique and the players.
The bookmakers obviously see it that way too and the odds on Barca are very short. Goals are also short, and, as a result of their earlier encounters, maybe a little too short. I think this has been overstated here and thus i’m going to go the other way. You can get under 2.5 goals at 9/4. I think it’s a very good price and it’s the kind of price you can’t really pass up. Despite the fact that Barcelona are often involved in high-scoring games, three of their last eight games have been under 2.5, and with this being a final, potentially a very tense one, I think we could see this outcome once again.