The two big guns of Group G go head-to-head in this clash on Wednesday night. Given the rest of the teams in this group, it will be something absolutely historic if one of these teams is outside the top two spots come the end of the campaign.
Italy managed to turn over their Mediterranean rivals at Euro 2016 by beating them 2-0 in the Round of 16. Although the Spanish were the favourites, Antonio Conte’s (now at Chelsea) Italy produced a tactical masterclass to overcome their opponents before finally leaving the tournament in the quarter-finals after a penalty shootout loss against Germany.
Following Conte’s departure after Euro 2016, the Italians have a new manager in Giampiero Ventura. The 68-year-old has a wealth of managerial experience in Italy but this is arguably his first ‘big job’. His first match was a 3-1 friendly loss to Euro runners-up France before beating Israel 3-1 in his first competitive match.
Italy’s qualifying record is absolutely exceptional. Particularly at home where they have not lost a qualifier (Euro or World Cup) since a 2-3 loss against Denmark in September 1999. Probably even more astonishing is that they have not lost a home World Cup qualifier since records began in 1934. The continuity held over that time is absolutely incredible and just shows the nouse of Italian football.
However, if any team can threaten a record like that it is Spain. Like Italy, they also have a new manager in Julen Lopetegui. Like Ventura, the 50-year-old does not have a wealth of top level experience and it will be especially interesting to see how the former Porto boss deals with the ongoing transition of Spanish football as a new generation of players comes through to try and continue the success achieved over the last decade or so.
Spain got their World Cup qualification campaign off to a rather predictably good start with an 8-0 thrashing of minnows Lichtenstein, although we cannot read too much into this. We will truly see if Spain have recovered from their disappointing World Cup 2014 and Euro 2016 campaigns in this match against Italy. Given the Italians’ record at home a draw would be fantastic for Lopetegui’s squad which features nine players with under ten caps to their name.
Although Spain are a good side, you just cannot go against Italy with a home record like that. I would certainly advise backing them on the ‘Draw No Bet’, it’s very hard to see the Italians losing, while not so hard at all to see them coming away with all three points.
If you fancy something at a higher price, and are not sure which way this match will swing, I would look at going with ‘Under 1.5 Goals Total’ at 3/2 (365). Whilst this may seem high risk, it’s actually the opposite. This is likely to be a tense affair with both teams more likely to ensure they do not lose as opposed to go out all guns blazing. Both sides will probably take a draw here and hope a bigger goal difference against the smaller sides sees them claim top spot in the group.
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