In the first leg of this tie, as overwhelming favourites, West Ham were fancied to come back with a positive result against Slovenian opponents Domzale, with fans and punters alike falling into the trap of thinking that the lesser-known team would be pushovers. Well, they certainly weren’t. In fact, they proved to be quite good and, with a 2-1 lead, the Slovenian outfit have the upper hand as we approach the second leg.
The first leg certainly didn’t pan out as many expected, rather than West Ham cruising to an easy away victory, they found themselves in an open game, one where their opponents created more chances and indeed scored more goals. However, there is still plenty of hope for the East London side, who, having scored a vital away goal, can make amends with a positive result in front of their own fans.
Once more though, West Ham are expected to be involved in a tough game. Much like the first leg, this will be no easy task and the hosts will need to be playing at a much higher level than last week if they are to make it through to the play-offs.
From a betting point of view, it’s hard to go with either side. The visitors could easily turn up and get the result they need, while West Ham, if they turn it on, could just as easily get the win that would send them through. Neither side appears to have an edge that makes them worth backing for the win, so let’s approach this from a different angle.
The bet to go for here is ‘Both Teams To Score’ or if you fancy something a little bigger ‘Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams To Score’. Both bets represent good value and are worth the punt. There were goals in the first leg and, given the scoreline, the way this game is likely to be set up brings about a reasonably high chance of yet more goals. West Ham, as both the hosts and the side chasing, are required to attack. They’re an attacking side anyway, particularly at home and it would be a huge surprise, with the forward players at their disposal, if they weren’t able to score tonight. Having said this, Domzale, once again, should be more than capable of carrying a goal threat of their own. If they can remain patient and spring at the right time then counter-attacking opportunities should definitely arise.
The recent BTTS record for both of these two sides reads favourably too. West Ham have seen at least one goal go in at either ends in each of their last five home matches, while Domzale have seen the outcome in three of their last five away. This gives us eight out of ten overall. In percentage terms this gives us 80%. The available odds on this bet (5/4) suggests that there is only a 44.4% chance of both teams scoring, but if we assume, based on the record above, that the chance is actually much closer to 80% then it’s easy to see that we’re obtaining particularly good value on this selection.
If we also look at each teams last five games we can see that there has been at least three goals, with both teams scoring in six of their combined ten matches. This equates to 60%. However, the odds available here are 7/5, which suggests that there is only a 42.55% chance of this happening. Again, if we assume that, based on the above calculations and how we expect this game to pan out, the actual chance is closer to 60% then taking this bet at 7/5 represents good value.
See more Europa League tips here.