It seems somewhat strange that Liverpool are favourites according to the bookmakers. I think that Villarreal, who are now 4th in La Liga, are extremely underestimated here. Marselino’s team are good in defence (only 31 conceded goal in 35 Primera games) and are a very well balanced side indeed. Bakambu and Soldado create a lot of moments in attack, while Denis Suarez has been near brilliant on the left this season. The hosts also have the highest rate of wins and scored goals in the tournament.
The Yellow Submarine have never played in a European cup final, so these games against Liverpool are vital for them. Everybody in Villarreal is desperate to win the first continental trophy in the club’s history, and the Europa League is the only tournament where they won’t have to face either Barcelona, Real Madrid or Atletico Madrid. In truth they look capable of defeating any team left in the competition.
All in all Villarreal have shown a much more solid all-round game than Liverpool this season, who come into this first leg with both disciplinary and injury blows: Sakho and Origi will be missed.
Villarreal have played at home first in each of their knock-out ties in this competition. And from their six home games in the Europa this season they’ve yielded six wins and only conceded a single goal. It is on this basis that I back Villarreal to win to nil at 3.75, which looks a good price. Those who want to play it much more cautiously can take draw no bet for Villarreal at 1.67.