Here is a little story before my next tip. I can’t understand something, so I hope you’ll explain it to me.
On the second day of the tournament, I was reviewing bets. I saw a bet on total tournament centuries over 21.5 at 1.73 with William Hill and said: “Hmm, that’s interesting!” My friend heard me, listened to my explanation (he has never been betting on snooker before) and went for it with another bookmaker at 2.00. And his stake was huge. And we saw at that moment that the odds on this event went down immediately from 2.00 to 1.89. I was surprised that the stake (even that huge) influenced so much on the odds. And I felt for my friend who deferred to my prediction. That was not the end – another friend came and joined the discussion. And then he put the same bet with a similar sum. The odds went down to 1.83! Can you believe that? That bookmaker is international and famous. I wonder if just two bets (even huge ones) can lower the odds that much? I know that this bet is not popular and maybe not much people went for it and that’s why the odds leapt.
I felt for my friends, but Judd Trump and Neil Robertson made six centuries in their match so I believe that my bet will win. There are four games till the end of the tournament and we need just three centuries. Why I’m writing this? At first, I suggest not to give advice on bets to avoid any stress. Secondly, I haven’t got the scheme of odds changing. We can affect them and make an arbitrage. What do you think?
And here is my prediction after all. I chose one match – Judd Trump against Barry Hawkins (maybe I’ll give one more prediction after the Higgins-Bingham game). Trump had his best match of one and a half year. He defeated a strong opponent, played solid and made four centuries. I’m sure we can go for his win with handicap -1.5 frames. I feel ok with medium priced odds of 1.70.