Besides not being fully motivated, the Germans have acute squad problems prior to the match. Mertesacker, Lahm and Klose have left the team, Schweinsteiger, Gündoğan, Höwedes and Boateng are injured, Gotze doesn’t play at all in Bayern.
This all gives me a clear sign that England will score at least once. And I don’t doubt that Germany will find their way to the net, too. So, both teams to score at 1.91 seems like a very good price.
England, on the other hand, will take the match very seriously. Their squad for the Euros is less clear and the match against Germany will be a very important milestone for Roy Hodgson in choosing the line-up against Russia on June 11.
Given the fact that Germany will be without injured Boateng and Höwedes as well as retired Lahm and Mertesacker, England have all the chances to score more than once. Picking this is, of course, a risky affair, but the price at 4.2 is extremely attractive.
I’m following in Dmitry’s footsteps in backing both teams to score given the quality on display but going to push it a little further. Indeed, with a relatively large discrepancy in the odds, I’m willing to back the fact that it won’t be a 1-1 draw, meaning an over 2.5 goals result would be a certainty if both teams were to find the net, with the odds jumping to 2.37. The fact that each of Germany’s last five home games have seen at least three goals scored is also enough to convince us of a high scoring game.
Switching to the player markets for my second tip, I’m touting Thomas Muller to add to the two goals he has netted against England and his 31-goal tally for Die Mannschaft. With England’s first choice centre-back pairing still up in the air – Chris Smalling is perhaps the only defender who looks certain of a starting berth at the Euros – the visitors will need to be organised to keep a player of Muller’s intelligence at bay and any teething issues early on could prove costly.
The Bayern man has been in fine form in front of goal this season – just one shy of 20 league goals – and in the last seven matches he has scored, four of his goals have been the first of the game. With odds of 5.00 on Muller to open the scoring, he’s the man I think will get the ball rolling in what should be an entertaining affair.