The bookmakers may be wrong to go low on goals when Sporting Gijon meet Espanyol in a crucial basement battle.
Over 2.5 Goals has been chalked up as a 2.10 chance but there are plenty of trends in our favour as we get goals onside in Asturias.
For example, 8/12 (67%) of Sporting’s games at El Molinon have featured at least three goals whilst 10/13 (77%) of Espanyol’s away days have followed suit.
Sporting have cleared the Over 2.5 Goals barrier in seven of their eight fixtures at home to bottom-half teams and with Espanyol’s longer-term away stats also weighted towards a goal-heavy game – 22/32 (69%) since the start of last season, including 11 of their most recent 14 – it looks a bet not to be missed this weekend.
Based purely on the two teams’ home and away trends in 2015/16, this selection has an average 72% win rate, implying odds of nearly 1.40. It makes the 2.10 available a big value bet.