Sunday’s late Premier League match sees two teams with different aims this season go head-to-head. Southampton, at the very least, will want to match last season’s achievement of earning European football, whilst Burnley are simply looking to stay in the division. However, at this stage of the season, the pair are separated by just two points in the table.
The Saints suffered a pretty dreadful start to the season under new boss Claude Puel , suffering four games without victory. However, a narrow 1-0 victory over Swansea City just over a month ago was the catalyst for a purple patch of form as they’ve since gone on to convincingly defeat West Ham United before earning a respectable draw against champions Leicester City.
Southampton are pretty sound defensively but you would certainly say they do not score enough goals – even 18th placed West Ham have scored more. Having said that, in Charlie Austin they have a poacher in good form. Despite being out of favour at the start of the season, a couple of goals in the Europa League has thrust the forward into the Premier League XI and he has two goals in his last three games. Going up against former club Burnley will be extra motivation for the former bricklayer to score.
Burnley manager Sean Dyche has taken a different approach this time around after another good promotion campaign. This time he has decided to splash the cash a bit on the likes of Jeff Hendrick and Steven Defour – both of whom (Defour especially) have started their Clarets career well.
As per usual, the pundits and general public have decided Burnley will be up against it this season with many tipping them to go straight back down. But, as expected, Dyche’s team have shown that organisation, discipline and extremely hard work can take you places in the top flight – they’ve recorded two decent victories and are sitting in 14th place.
Although they are good defensively, like Southampton, they do not score enough goals. If Burnley do concede one you feel the best they can hope for is a draw as they just don’t look to have enough firepower to pull off a win from a losing position. Their five goals scored is the joint worst in the Premier League.
With Southampton being at home against likely relegation candidates, people will expect an easy victory. However, as previously mentioned, I am not convinced it will be so easy – even though Burnley have lost their two games on the road this season.
The Saints will have to break down an incredibly stubborn Burnley defence and I think it will take a while for them to do so. Although Burnley have a poor away record, those losses came against Chelsea and Leicester City. Surely they will feel they have a better chance against Southampton?
Furthermore, Southampton are yet to score in the first half of any Premier League home match this season and have tended to leave it much later before stepping on the gas.
All of this points in the direction of a low-scoring first half, very low-scoring and, with this in mind, a first half 0-0 draw looks a great bet 9/4. However, it’s fair to say that Southampton have the better side on paper and, as they have several times in matches already this season, should thus be able to break through the stubborn Clarets back-line in the second period. The double result ‘Half Time/Full Time – Draw/Southampton’ is another good-looking bet at 10/3.
See all of Sunday’s tips here.