Although England are likely to top this group come the end of the qualification campaign, Slovenia in particular will feel they have a good chance of finishing second and possibly qualify for next year’s World Cup.
Scotland have had a poor campaign so far and are now unlikely to even finish in the top two after poor results against the likes of Lithuania and Slovakia. They had a friendly against Canada in midweek – a big chance to build some confidence – but could only manage a draw at Easter Road in a lacklustre performance which will not live long in the memory.
The Scots have been pretty bad in both boxes over the course of the campaign and, apart from their five goals against minnows Malta, they have only scored one goal whilst they have also conceded eight – mainly thanks to thrashings by Slovakia and England.
Gordon Strachan is likely to make changes after his team’s poor display against Canada and so we should see a few more experienced players get the nod in this crunch clash against Slovenia.
One good thing going for the Tartan Army going into this match is their home form. Scotland have lost just once in their last eight matches on home soil and even that was a narrow 3-2 loss against world champions Germany. Having said that, the fact they could only draw against Lithuania in one of those vital home games is a big blot on the parchment.
Slovenia are going pretty well in Group F and are only two points off England in top spot with no defeats suffered. However, they, like Scotland, could only manage a draw against Lithuania which probably means they will not be catching England now.
The Slovenes have certainly focused on defensive resilience in their campaign so far with just two goals conceded – both in that draw against Lithuania – and three clean sheets kept, including against England back in October. This defensive approach does mean that they lack a bit going forward, for example, they only managed to score one goal against minnows Malta last time out.
Srecko Katanec has a highly experienced core to his squad with a light showering of youthful exuberance around it – arguably the perfect blend.
Slovenia are undefeated in their last five away from home, including friendlies, but it must be said that four of those were draws – although they have kept three clean sheets in that run. In competitive matches they have struggled outside of Slovenia and only really beat the smaller nations on their travels. Do we consider Scotland a smaller nation these days?
Scottish football is pretty demoralised at the moment and manager Gordon Strachan seems to be a dead man walking – defeat here could quite possibly be curtains for him. Slovenia may not be the greatest team in the world, but they’ve offered more than Scotland recently and are doing well in this qualification campaign. Against a side lacking confidence, the visitors should fancy their chances and are worth backing to come out on top at a nice price.
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