This tie is all but over after Italian side AS Roma pulled off an incredible 4-0 victory in their away tie at Villarreal, meaning that the Spaniards have to score at least four without reply in Rome on Thursday to have any chance of qualifying.
Roma are currently on a fantastic run with 10 wins in their last 11 matches in all competitions. They do sit seven points off top spot in Serie A but it has still been a fantastic season so far.
Luciano Spalletti’s side are excellent in both boxes, scoring 54 goals in the league this season (more than top-of-the-table Juventus) and conceded just 22 in 25 games, keeping clean sheets in 44% of their matches.
The Stadio Olimpico has been a real fortress for Roma this season with just one defeat in all competitions this season which came all the way back in August. Furthermore, they have claimed victory in each of their last 11 home games, scoring 18 and conceding just 11 in the process.
Villarreal are no doubt looking to focus on La Liga now and managed to recover from their thrashing by Roma to beat Real Sociedad on Sunday, keeping them 6th in the table.
Although it did not look like it against Roma, the Yellow Submarine have been absolutely brilliant at the back this season and have the best defensive record in La Liga with just 15 goals conceded in 23 matches, three fewer than Real Madrid who have played two more games.
Attacking has been a much bigger problem for Fran Escriba’s side and they have found the back of the net just 30 times in La Liga this season and only scored nine times in the Europa League group stages in 2016.
Away form has been patchy for Villarreal and, whilst they are undefeated in their last five La Liga matches on the road, they have won just three times in their last eight games in all competitions away from Estadio de la Cerámica. The Europa League is no different and Villarreal did not win a single away match in the group stages this season and have won just once in their last eight Europa League away games.
With the score-line being so huge at this stage, this match is actually quite difficult to call as you are not sure which Roma team will turn up and how motivated Villarreal will be. 70% of Villarreal matches this season have had less than three goals and I think we will see the same here which can be had at 6/5.
Having said that, I would edge to back Roma here given their stupendous home form and the fact that Villarreal simply just want this tie to be over now. Backing the Italians to come out on top in low-scoring fashion catches the eye also at 10/3.
You can read more Europa League tips here.