No Dutch side has played knockout Champions League football since 2007 but PSV Eindhoven bucked that trend by qualifying for the last-16. However, the Eredivisie champions are in for an arduous task in attempting to overcome seasoned knockout specialists Atletico Madrid.
Philip Cocu’s head into the first leg contest from the Phillips Stadion without three of their three significant and key absentees this midweek. Maxime Lestienne was arguably the Peasants’ best performer in the group stages – scoring twice and delivering two assists – but the Belgian winger misses out through injury along with Mexican maestro Andres Guardado.
However, PSV’s major missing man is 23-goal top scorer Luuk de Jong who’s suspended. Jurgen Locadia has been tipped to replace Cocu’s star hitman but the opportunity for an upset has vastly diminished without the absent trio.
Visiting Atletico remain one of Europe’s finest cup football opponents and Diego Simeone’s side are intelligent, exceptionally organised and boast lion-sized hearts that are epitomised by their exhausting work-rate.
I fancy Los Rojiblancos to sneak a first leg victory and am backing them to do so at 3.40 with Under 2.5 Goals thrown it. The Mattress Makers have kept clean sheets in 11 of their last 15 Champions League games as well as in 12 of their 19 road trips this term. No side has won more away games domestically than Atletico’s total of nine (W9-D1-L3) and they picked up seven points during their group-sage travels.
A huge 17 of Los Rojiblancos’ 21 triumphs across La Liga and the Champions League came alongside clean sheets whilst they’ve shutout seven of their 10 hosts across both competitions. Include all formats and the Mattress Makers have shipped just eight goals in 19 outside their Vicente Calderon home with 14 of those fixtures featuring fewer than three goals.
In last season’s Champions League, Atletico saw three of their four knockout matches finish in 1-0 scorelines, alongside one goalless game. If you fancy the away success like me, you’re best investing in a narrow road victory for Simeone’s side.