Had you looked at this fixture a couple of weeks ago, you would have almost certainly have backed a Forest win. However, with experienced manager Neil Warnock getting off to a good start in his new role at Cardiff, the tables have turned somewhat.
After their 3-1 win at home to Birmingham City last Friday, Forest should have gone into Tuesday’s match away against lowly Blackburn Rovers with boosted confidence. However, in typical Forest fashion this season they imploded and lost 2-1. If it was not for their decent home form this season then the Reds would easily have found themselves in the bottom three.
Additionally, their defence is all over the place and they have the second worst back-line in the league with 25 goals conceded and are still yet to keep a clean sheet. Their win against Birmingham was certainly more down to a poor display from the Blues rather than anything convincing by Forest.
Going back home to the City Ground you feel that Philippe Montanier’s side should be able to use their home form to dispose of the Welsh opponents. However, Cardiff have had an upturn in fortunes since the appointment of Neil Warnock and so the Bluebirds will certainly provide a stern test.
There is not much point in talking about Cardiff’s form before Warnock came into the building as it has certainly been a clean slate since then. The former Sheffield United manager has guided his team to one win and one draw against two teams in the top six in Bristol City and Sheffield Wednesday. Coming up against a team who could be in and around the bottom of the league come the end of the season is another test for Cardiff but one they will no doubt relish after their great start under Warnock.
Although they are yet to keep a clean sheet under Warnock’s stewardship, Cardiff look a lot more solid at the back after conceding 19 goals in just 11 matches under previous manager Paul Trollope.
Warnock has no doubt drilled in the importance of set pieces in a tough league like the Championship and it is no surprise that all three goals under his management so far have come from set pieces.
Two of those goals have come from Peter Whittingham, firstly from the penalty spot against Bristol City before an excellent free kick against Sheffield Wednesday. With Forest so erratic in defence I think Cardiff should get a couple of set piece chances where their specialist Whittingham (who has scored an amazing 43% of his 91 Cardiff goals from set pieces) will be able to take advantage. The odds on the former Aston Villa man to score are a very favourable 6/1.
This match is actually quite tough to call with Cardiff’s resurgence along with Forest’s good home form. Given the general atmosphere in the Welsh capital at the moment it would not be unusual to go for Warnock’s side to pull off another victory. However, we must take Forest’s record at the City Ground into account. This all leads to one result – stalemate. You can get the draw at 13/5 which represents great value given the two teams involved.
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