England are very much the favourites for this match, however, if you look closely at the markets, there is still value to be had.
Malta have had a terrible qualification campaign so far with six losses from six matches. This means they are now unable to qualify for next year’s World Cup.
Pietro Ghedin’s men have been poor at both ends of the pitch in this campaign with just two goals scored and 15 conceded. This hardly comes as a surprise when you look at their previous qualification campaigns with the most alarming statistic being that Malta have not kept a competitive clean sheet since June 2013.
The Falcons have a terrible home record in competitive football with just three wins in their entire history. These came against Hungary in 2006, Iceland in 1982 and Greece in 1975. However, for this match, arguably the most important statistic for punters is that Malta have conceded an average of 3.25 goals per match in their last four qualifying outings at home.
Gareth Southgate’s England currently top Group F and have yet to suffer defeat in this World Cup 2018 qualification campaign. They may have stumbled a bit recently with a draw against Scotland and a loss against France but they should come out on top here.
The Three Lions have been good in the final third of late with two goals scored in each of their last three outings. However, the fact they conceded twice against Scotland and looked very vulnerable at the back against France shows where they need to improve. Having said that, they should be able to see off a weak Malta attack on Friday.
England have struggled to find a bit of consistency on the road in recent World Cup qualification campaigns with no back-to-back wins since 2008/09 and five draws in their last eight away outings in World Cup qualifying. Furthermore, in terms of the final third, they have scored just three away goals in this qualification campaign so far.
Despite the fact that England have this goalscoring problem on the road, Malta should provide easy opposition on Friday and I expect the away side to come out on top with ease. England’s attacking force has a lot of experience at this level and should be punishing Malta, even if Pietro Ghedin’s side set up to defend for 90 minutes. With this in mind, I have gone for ‘England to Win and Over 3.5 Goals Total‘ at Evens.