Karlovic had a great summer, winning two tournaments as well as being in the final in Washington where he lost to Gael Monfils.
He had a difficult match against Lu Yen-hsun at the start of his US Open campaign but then went on to beat both Donald Young and Jared Donaldson in three sets.
I am not sure what is going on with the draw but Nishikori is not the best when it comes to playing four sets whereas Karlovic is stronger in that type of game. Karlovic’s incredible serve will be very dangerous for Nishikori and these could be decisive moments in the match.
In my opinion we will no doubt be witnessing a prolonged battle here, perhaps with all five sets being played but certainly no quick victory for either player.
With this in mind I think the match will go over the 38.5 game barrier. The fact that Karlovic is often involved in tiebreakers is another reason why we can expect more games here.
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