This Group G clash looks to be a bit of a mismatch as Italy host Albania. Italy and Spain dominate this group and are both undefeated in their four matches so far and they drew in the second round of matches. Although Italy are behind Spain on goal difference, they will feel more than confident that they will be in Russia next year.
Surprisingly, Gian Ventura’s men have not been great at the back in this World Cup qualification and have only kept one clean sheet in their four matches and even that came against minnows Liechtenstein. However, they have been very good going forward and have found the back of the net 11 times overall and in each of their four games.
The Italians have a fantastic home record in qualification and last lost a qualifier on home soil all the way back in 1999. Furthermore, the Azzurri have never lost a World Cup qualifier at home in a record stretching back to 1934.
Albania reached their first ever major international tournament as an independent country last summer but failed to get beyond the group stage. They have a balanced record in the qualification campaign for next summer’s World Cup with two wins and two losses. Unfortunately those two losses came in their most recent games and they can certainly be considered in bad form. These two defeats and the fact Italy and Spain are in their group probably means Albania will not be in Russia in 2018.
The Eagles have only played one match away from home in this campaign and that was a win, although it was only 2-0 over Liechtenstein. However, their form on their travels in the Euro 2016 qualifying campaign was fantastic with no defeats and clean sheets in all four of their matches.
Although they can be considered a small nation, Gianni De Biasi’s (who is Italian) side do have some very talented players in their side, including Bekim Balaj who is having a good season in Russia.
Italy are of course the favourites here and you really cannot back any market that goes against them. The Azzurri are excellent in both boxes and, despite Albania’s good defensive record on their travels, I expect the Italians to win convincingly. ‘Italy to Win & Over 2.5 Goals’ – a bet that has landed in three of the host’s four qualifiers – is how to play it.
Read more from Thomas here.