18:10 Kempton – Dutiful Son @ 11/2
The 18:10 at Kempton Park on Wednesday looks a really good opportunity for Simon Dow’s Dutiful Son to gain his fifth success at the track.
Having won around here four times, this six-year-old has shown a clear liking to the track and looks to have dropped into a race that should be within his grasp.
Considering he’s won four times and placed on a further five occasions (from 12 runs) it’s not overly hard to make a case for this gelding, although doubt could creep in when we consider the fact that he’s never won over today’s trip of a mile.
Despite not winning over a mile, it’s fair to say he’s still relatively unexposed over the trip and on the occasions when he has raced over a full eight furlongs, he’s performed with credit, particularly at Kempton. Four runs over C&D have seen him finish inside the places every time. None of those races suggested that this trip was too far, in fact, he’s been seen to keep on well on each occasion.
The last time Dutiful Son ran over C&D was back in September 2015 – a run which saw him lay down a big effort in 3rd place (beaten around half a length), keeping well clear of the remainder. A repeat of such form would surely see him go close here. Since then he’s both won and finished a close 2nd around here in decent Class 4 events over seven furlongs, staying on strongly on both occasions.
This gelding’s last three runs have seen him competing at Class 2 level. Although he’s ran with plenty, it’s probably fair to say that his capabilities probably don’t stretch far enough for him to win in that sort of company, but in an ordinary Class 4 event he should have a big say in proceedings.
Punters shouldn’t be put off by a reappearance run that saw Dutiful Son finish last of 12 over six furlongs at Lingfield at the end of last month. At Class 2 level this is a trip that is far too short and there’s no way he was ever entered into that contest for anything other than fitness purposes. With that run under his belt, though, the six-year-old should be capable of getting far more seriously involved back among a class of opponent who he’s regular done very well against.
All in all, there’s plenty to like about this horse – he’s shown a clear tendency to go well at Kempton and, in a race that is far less demanding than some of his most recent tasks, Dutiful Son should be seen to good effect and is worth being on at a price that could easily prove somewhat generous (11/2).
See all of Wednesday’s tips here.