Here’s the final. Martin Gould: UK, 34 years old, 20th in the rankings. It’s his second final; he’s got 139 Century breaks (11 of them this season). Luca Brecel: Belgian, 20 years old, it’s the first final in his career, he’s scored 54 Century breaks (13 in the current season). Martin’s got 2:0 in personal encounters, but they were back in 2010 and 2011, when Luka was not so strong. In the semifinals, Gould played better. They both made only two notable breaks (87 and 53 from Gould, 67 and 63 from Brecel). Gould controls his emotions better.
I admit that at the start Brecel’s prowess can allow him to lead for a while. But in the long run, Martin Gould’s advantage should come into force.
Looking at previous games, I suppose there won’t be many centuries. Both of them made only a few of centuries in the tournament. Despite low odds, total centuries under 2.5 seems like a good pick.
It’s difficult to predict who will have the longest break, so I choose Brecel.