Here we have a finely poised Champions League qualifier between Irish side Dundalk and BATE Borisov of Belarus. Two teams who’re the reigning champions in their respective leagues.
Having won 1-0 in Belarus, BATE come into this second leg with a narrow advantage, although this could be slightly more telling than the bare scoreline suggests. The hosts were dominant in the first leg, in terms of both shots on goal and possession. And in reality, the side from Barysaw should’ve come away with a greater lead.
Regardless of whether BATE should’ve done more in the first leg, there is still only one goal in it and this can easily be rectified from a Dundalk point of view, but maybe this fine margin can go against them here. A single goal lead is indeed a narrow one; however, the Belarusian side have taken a massive stride towards progressing to the next round by denying their opponents an away goal. Not only does this prevent them from being hurt by the away goal rule, it also sets them up nicely for this match.
In terms of how this game is likely to pan out, Dundalk, as the hosts and as the side who’re trailing, have to do more in an attacking sense. They were particularly negative in the away leg and they can’t really afford to repeat this tonight, especially when you consider that they would need a goal just to take this one to extra time as things stand. This should suit the visitors, who, in the first leg, shaped as though they would benefit from Dundalk attacking, as opposed to them just getting men behind the ball.
From a betting point of view, at odds of 12/11, BATE wouldn’t be the worst bet to win this match, although there is a better way to play this one. The bet to be on is ‘BATE To Score Over 1.5 Goals’ at 13/10.
As well as how this tie is likely to be set up thanks to the aggregate scoreline, the recent stats read quite favourably too. BATE have been in pretty good scoring form recently. They’ve scored in each of their last five matches, scoring two or more in four of them. Meanwhile, Dundalk have conceded in four of their last five matches, conceding two or more in two of those.
BATE were the superior side in the first leg and it is fancied that they can get the better of their opponents once more. The Belarusian champions will know that scoring away goals – something Dundalk failed to do – can be crucial and it looks more than likely that they’ll manage this. The fact that Dundalk can’t really afford to sit back like they did in the first leg simply adds to the visitors chances of goals.
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