These two clubs have reversed their early season form as current play-off hopefuls Derby County host former promotion contenders Bristol City.
Derby rested a fair number of players for their FA Cup replay against Leicester City in midweek with this key Championship match in mind. The Rams are currently eighth in the league, but are only three points off the play-offs – very good considering they started so badly.
Steve McLaren’s side have very much relied on their defensive resilience to pick up results and currently have the best defensive record in the league with just 22 goals conceded in 29 league matches. Although they have scored nine goals in their last five matches in all competitions, the Rams’ are still not the best going forward and have the fifth-worst ‘Goals For’ record in the league with just 30.
Derby have been fantastic at home recently with no losses in their last 10 games at the iPro Stadium in all competitions. However, after a run of eight consecutive clean sheets on home soil, the fact that Derby have conceded four in their last two matches at home will be a concern for McLaren.
After starting the season so well and looking like real play-off contenders, Bristol City have dropped like a stone down to 20th and are now both only three points above the relegation zone and bottom of the league’s overall form table. Confidence may be boosted thanks to their recent win against bottom side Rotherham United, but going to Derby is a completely different test.
The back-line has been the major problem for the Robins lately, as you would expect with a team who lose so often. They are relatively decent in the final third having scored 38 goals in 29 league games but whether this will prove to be enough against this Derby side is another matter.
Lee Johnson’s side have been woeful on their travels this season and are not even in double figures in terms of points scored having secured just eight points in 14 away matches.
I cannot see anything but a Derby win here and, given how woeful Bristol City are on the road, The Rams can claim both the points and a clean sheet. After all, Derby have kept a clean sheet in 71% of their home matches this season.
‘Derby County to Win to Nil’, at 21/10, is an opportunity not to be missed.
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