Derby County (6.91 on WhoScored) were poor in the beginning of the season with just four points in the first five games. But then some changes were done by the manager, and their game looks much better now. After the search in tactics they returned to 4-3-3 formation, and the defense led by Jason Shackell now looks like a fortress.
Now Derby County are the second-best team in the Championship in terms of defence. They concede only 0.65 goals per game. Their attack stays strong with 1.4 goals per game with Johnny Russell (6.99), Tom Ince (6.98) and Chris Martin (7.06) in front. And a lot of top teams from the Premier League are interested in Derby’s 23-young midfielder George Thorne (7.44).
The Rams have got two wins, two draws and one loss in the last five games with goal difference +3 (6-3). They play solid at home with 19 of possible 30 points this season, and with just one defeat. Will Hughes (6.06, not regular player) is injured now.
Bristol City (6.70) have qualified for the Championship for the first time in many years. It’ll be difficult for Steve Cotterill’s team to stay in the league. They are only 19th in the table, three points away from the relegation zone. They concede 1.65 goals per match, one of the worst results in the Championship. They largely depend on striker Jonathan Kodjia (6.90), who scored 45% of all Bristol’s goals this season.
They have got 1 win, 2 draws and 3 losses in the last five games with 3-7 goal difference. They won against Huddersfield Town, who are 20th in the table. The score was 1:2. They got only 10 out of 30 points in away games. The team have got no injured players.
Summary: the main task for Derby County will be to strip Kodjia of the ball. I think the home team will do that and keep a clean sheet. I suggest taking -1.0 Asian handicap on Derby as the first choice.