If someone had said at the start of the season that Burnley and Crystal Palace would be 14th and 13th respectively, you would think it was an unrealistic prediction. However, Burnley have played above themselves and worked out how to collect points whilst Palace are struggling again.
Burnley are currently on a pretty good run in the Premier League, firstly beating Everton at home before earning a deserved goalless draw against Manchester United at Old Trafford.
Sean Dyche’s side are one of the only teams left in England who play an apparently old-fashioned 4-4-2 formation. Even though it is by many considered out-dated, Burnley’s rather lofty position in the table says otherwise.
Although they play two strikers, much of Burnley’s play relies on being incredibly organised with two banks of four which means the opposition struggle to break them down. This was particularly evident against United last week, although having a fine goalkeeper in Tom Heaton helped their cause significantly.
The Clarets have turned home ground Turf Moor into a fortress with just two losses in six matches this season – excellent for a newly-promoted side. People say that the atmosphere is dying in football but the Burnley players clearly get a lift when they play in front of their home fans.
Probably Burnley’s most impressive stat this season is that they have not conceded more than one goal in a Premier League match at Turf Moor. In fact, stretching back to last season in the Championship the Clarets have not conceded more than once in their last 19 matches. If they get it right again against Palace on Saturday then there is no reason why they cannot pull off another good result.
Crystal Palace have once again plunged into the depths of defeat in recent matches. It looked like the season was picking up a few games ago after suffering back-to-back losses in the opening two matches, but they have now gone back to their old ways with three losses in three games and no wins in four.
Whilst many would say that going to Burnley is an ideal fixture to turn your fortunes around, I think it is the opposite. Burnley work harder than most sides in the league and will fight Palace for every ball.
In fact, for Palace, going away from home at all is usually a bad sign. They have a terrible record on the road in recent months and in fact picked up their first away win of 2016 against Middlesbrough on the 10th of September.
Whilst it is fair to say that the Eagles are doing OK away from Selhurst Park this season with two victories out of five – they have also lost two of those matches.
Defence has been a big problem in the last couple of matches with the south London side conceding seven in their two most recent fixtures. Although four of those were conceded against Liverpool, who are the joint top-scorers in the league, two of those four goals came from set pieces – much to the frustration of Alan Pardew.
I think the bookmakers have actually got this wrong as they have gone for a Palace away win which I can only assume is snobbery against Burnley. However, Sean Dyche will not mind being the underdog.
Instead of going with the Palace win, I would advise punters to back Burnley one way or another. The safest and probably best way of doing this is to go with a ‘Burnley Draw No Bet’.
Palace’s main threat, despite James McArthur’s two goals last week, is clearly Christian Benteke. The Belgian feeds off crosses into the box and is lethal when he connects properly. However, unlike many other Premier League teams, crosses are food and drink to Burnley defenders and I am not sure that Palace’s wingers possess the quality to deliver good service on a regular basis.
As demonstrated by their goals tally before signing Benteke this summer, I am not sure Palace have another attacking outlet if their Plan A fails.
Additionally if we factor in Burnley’s excellent defensive record at Turf Moor, it only leads to one result. With this in mind, I very keen on ‘Crystal Palace Not to Score’ at an incredibly generous 11/4.
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