Everything that could go wrong did for Brighton during the first leg of their Championship play-off semi-final against Sheffield Wednesday on Friday night.
Having missed out on automatic promotion due to an inferior goal difference, the Seagulls suffered four injuries – playing the final 30 minutes with 10 men – as they went down 2-0 at Hillsborough to leave Chris Hughton’s men with a mountain to climb on Monday.
Centre-half Connor Goldson, top-scorer Tomer Hemed, midfielder Steve Sidwell and wideman Anthony Knockaert are all highly unlikely to be fit for the return, leaving the Seasiders without 10 first-team players as they bid to become the first side in history to overturn a two-goal deficit from the first leg.
Only six of Brighton’s 24 regular season victories were achieved by that magic margin and without the spine of the side that’s proven so successful this season, progression looks a mighty tall order at the Amex.
Still, you wouldn’t bet against the Seagulls giving it a right good go. Having tallied an impressive 15 wins from 23 home outings this term, the hosts have the potential to open this tie up. Should the Seagulls grab the first goal, this tie could really liven up.
For the record, Sheffield Wednesday have suffered just four losses by a two-goal margin under Carlos Carvalhal, including two against top-two finishers Burnley and Middlesbrough. However, both those defeats to the top-two came back in the summer of 2015.
Friday night’s triumph was Wednesday’s first against a top-six side this season (W1-D7-L3) and although their away record (W6-D9-L8) doesn’t exactly standout from the crowd, Carvalhal’s troops have the quality to pack a punch when it matters and you wouldn’t rule the guests out grabbing a goal.
The Owls have scored in 10 of their last 11 fixtures and whilst they failed to twist the knife in the first showdown, they’ll be well aware how fragile the current scoreline can be so they’d be foolish to shut up shop.
So considering the landscape, I’m surprised to see Over 2.5 Goals offered at odds as big as 13/10. With Brighton chucking men forward in a desperate attempt to find an avenue back into the tie and Wednesday ready to exploit the spaces on the counter-attack, surely we’ll see a couple of goals here?
The Over 2.5 Goals approach has proven profitable in eight of the last 10 Championship play-off second legs with the average total goals over those 10 tussles a bulky 3.40 per-game. Over 3.5 Goals banked in half of those fixtures.
If we go back further, 16/30 (53%) of second leg matches featured three or more goals giving us both short and long-term backing to support Over 2.5 Goals. Therefore, I’m happy to make it my main and major play for Monday night.