Friday’s Championship match sees automatic promotion hopefuls Brighton & Hove Albion take on play-off chasers Derby County.
Brighton managed to put a bad run of two consecutive defeats behind them with a 2-0 win away at bottom of the table Rotherham United on Tuesday night – hopefully you followed my tip for that one! They currently sit second in the table and have a six-point cushion over third place Huddersfield Town – although Huddersfield have a game in hand.
As mentioned on several occasions this season, the Seagulls have been fantastic at the back with just 31 goals conceded in the league and a 50% clean sheet rate. However, fortunately for them, they are also good in the final third and are the Championship’s third-highest goalscorers this season with 60 and have registered in all but one of their last 12 matches in all competitions.
Although they lost their last home match against fellow title challengers Newcastle United, Chris Hughton’s men have been brilliant on home soil and have the best home record in the division having collected 42 points. Furthermore, they have the best home goal difference in the league by some distance.
A few months ago it looked like Derby were likely to bag themselves a play-off spot, however, they have recently slipped up in this vital part of the season with just one win in their last eight league games, putting them a huge ten points behind 6th place.
Much like Brighton, the Rams have been solid at the back this season and they have only conceded two more goals than Brighton in their 36 league games whilst they have the second-best clean sheet record in the Championship with 44%. Unfortunately though, unlike Brighton, Steve McLaren’s side are pretty impotent going forward with just 39 goals scored – worse than three of the bottom five sides in the league.
Derby are on an abysmal run of form away from home at the moment with three consecutive 1-0 losses in the league and four straight defeats in all competitions.
Given Brighton’s home form and Derby’s miserable away form, I expect the Seagulls to come out on top here. Derby have only found the back of the net 15 times on their travels this season and I doubt they will be able to do much damage to a Brighton defence who have only conceded 11 in 18 games at the AMEX Stadium. ‘Brighton to Win to Nil’ is the bet to go for at 2/1.
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