While the odds are stacked in England’s favour, Gabriele is right to point out that circumstances could mean that this game is poised for Wales to spring a surprise, or two. England really need a win in order to take some pressure off of their final game with Slovakia, while Chris Coleman’s men cannot only play with the freedom of being underdogs, but also the fact that they have three points on the board already.
Wales will set up in their 3-5-1-1 formation as usual, primed to release the likes of Bale and Ramsey on the counter, and they have players more than capable of penetrating England’s defence. Of course, that much is also the case in reverse, with England possessing plenty of firepower, so this should be an entertaining game. That said, it may be nervy early on from the Three Lions point of view, and we’ve generally had to wait for goals in the second half of matches in the tournament so far, including 4 of the 5 scored in these two sides’ opening matches. Odds @2.25 on over 1.5 goals in the second half are very tempting.
While Germany may have met expectations by getting off to a winning start against Ukraine, their group opener was not without the odd scare. Fomenko’s men could so easily have scored in the first half, presented with a number of chances at Manuel Neuer’s goal, exposing the weakness in Die Mannschaft’s defence, particularly in the continued absence of Mats Hummels. Poland, by comparison, were far more comfortable at the back against a Northern Ireland side that mustered just 2 shots, though they will be truly tested against the Germany attack.
Adam Nawalka will be confident of his side posing problems of their own though, with Arkadiusz Milik proving that Poland have an attacking threat beyond Robert Lewandowski. Having been the top scorers in qualifying (33 goals) and beaten Germany en route to the tournament, Polish fans will hope to be celebrating an even more memorable night on Thursday. In truth, however, Germany are deserving of their favourites tag, possessing a squad brimming with talent, so odds on Loew’s men to win with both teams scoring @ 3.40 are appealing.
England are huge favorites here, it’s the usual “England effect”. And so your first instinct is to go the other way. That Dele Alli-Wayne Rooney partnership remains unconvincing in my opinion against a side which congests the midfield as Wales are likely to do. Plus there’s the derby atmosphere to factor in. And the fact that you can picture Roy Hodgson designing some kind of elaborate plan to stop Gareth Bale, which is unlikely to work, if only because England players don’t do well when they’re given too much instruciton. I’m thinking Wales +1 on the handicap at a healthy 11/8.
I don’t think Germany are quite where Jogi Loew wants them to be. Against a fairly unremarkable Ukraine it took a set piece and an injury time counter to score. Poland’s use of two center forwards was a bit clunky against hyper defensive Northern Ireland, but they should enjoy more space against the Germans. There’s also plenty of aggro here as well.
The Germans will look to play on the front foot and dictate the game, as they always do, but these tactics could suit Poland down to the ground. Against Germany in qualifying it was in fact these tactics that allowed Poland to soak up the pressure and play on the counter to great effect, winning 2-0. Once again I think Poland are capable of getting something from this game, and while it may not be a win, a draw, at 4.2, looks tasty to me.
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