Sevilla’s quest for a hat-trick of Europa League trophies takes Unai Emery’s side to Basel on Thursday night but I certainly won’t be backing the Andalusians to deliver a first leg victory.
Remarkably, Los Rojiblancos are still looking for their first away La Liga win of the season after failing to hold a 1-0 lead at relegation-threatened Getafe on Saturday – the capital club had been beaten in seven games on the spin coming into that contest.
And it’s not like Sevilla have been doing the business on the road in continental competition. Thursday’s visitors were beaten in all three of their Champions League group-games as guests as well Molde in the previous Europa League round.
Sure, the Spanish side had held a commanding first leg lead before heading to Norway a fortnight ago but even so, there’s no obvious explanation as to why Sevilla slack off so significantly when outside their fortress Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan home, where they’ve won 15 on the trot!
Hosts Basel are 14 points clear at the top of their domestic division in Switzerland and appear destined for yet another league triumph. However, their Europa League prospects were almost ended against St Etienne in the last-32.
Urs Fischer’s men required a dramatic stoppage-time goal to secure a 4-4 aggregate score against the Ligue 1 outfit, securing progression via the away-goals rule. And it’s fair to say, Basel didn’t exactly cover themselves in glory over the two matches against Les Verts.
But the dream of playing in the Europa League final at their St Jakob Park is alive and well and over the years, Basel have been awkward opponents as hosts. Liverpool, Chelsea, Porto, Fiorentina and Valencia have all failed to pick up a win here and Real Madrid only ran out victors by a single-goal margin last season.
Breel Embolo’s suspension is a blow for the hosts but nevertheless, I’m expecting the two teams to play front-foot football here and that should lead us onto a goal-filled game. Both Teams To Score is an obvious shout but I’ll snap up the 2.15 quote on Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score instead.
Basel have netted in all of their continental clashes in 2015/16 whilst five of their last eight Europa League ties have featured at least three goals. Looking further back, a chunky 13 of the Swiss side’s most recent 18 have delivered winning Over 2.5 Goals bets.
Sevilla have only once failed to strike in their last 12 matches in this competition with eight of their last 10 Europa League fixtures producing Over 2.5 Goals winners. And in eight European outings this term, five have broken the two-goal barrier so I’ll happily invest in a repeat scenario here.