Barcelona always fail in the first game after the international break, but in the second one they always make a brilliant show. The game against Atletico Madrid is the second, so Barca will try to redeem themselves after the Clasico defeat that ended the streak of 39 games without losing.
The Catalans under Luis Enrique are successful against Atletico: six wins in six games. Previous Barcelona manager, Tito Martino, had no wins against Atleti at all.
But I doubt that all blaugrana players are fit enough, especially the Latin Americans. El Clasico was tough and now Barcelona players can feel the fatigue. And Atletico are able to drain opponents and use all the mistakes that come up. The previous game against Real Betis was a pleasure cruise for los Indios (5:1). So, Barca can be too fatigued by the end of the game, like it was in the Clasico, while Atleti must be in a good shape.
That’s why I want to back total goals over 2.5 goals here. These teams have done it before this season – 2:1 at Vicente Calderon and 2:1 at Camp Nou. I know that every team tries to play it safe in the first leg. But if Atletico score, Barca will have nothing to lose.
More to say, both teams have issues in their defensive lines. Atleti’s Diego Godin is back, but Jose Gimenez and Stefan Savic are out. Barca have nobody to play on the left: Jordi Alba had a minor injury vs Real Madrid while Adriano and Jeremy Mathieu are still not available. Sergio Roberto can be fielded on the left, but it’s not his usual position. I think that Alba will play to face all of the Atleti’s attacks on his flank.
The odds on overs are pretty good, Barcelona’s attacking trio is ok. So I back total over 2.5 goals here.