On Wednesday night, Bayern Munich travel to face Atlético Madrid at the Vicente Calderón. For the second time in 2016, the masters of the tactical approach face the ruthless attacking beast in the Spanish capital.
These two teams faced each other in a fascinating Champions League semi-final last season, where it was Atlético who went through on away goals – mainly thanks to an impressive 1-0 victory on home soil. Punters and fans alike could be in for much of the same this time around and, from a betting perspective, it’s incredibly hard to fault the hosts.
It is often said in football that one side has made their home ground a fortress, but Diego Simeone’s men really have done just that over the last few seasons. Teams of all statures fear coming to the Calderón, knowing that they’ll be in a fight, both tactically and physically, from the very first minute til the very last.
You’d have to go back to January of this year to see the last blotch on the hosts record in front of their own fans. Since then Atléti have gone 16 matches unbeaten at home. They’ve won 13 of those, beating the likes of Barcelona and tonight’s visitors along the way.
At odds of 6/5, ‘Atlético Madrid Draw No Bet’ is the way to play this one. It really can’t be stressed enough how difficult it is to get the better of this team. Simeone’s charges are just about as savvy as it comes defensively and they’ve become real experts at getting results when it matters. The first leg of the semi-final between these two last season is a prime example of that.
Of course Bayern are no mugs, far from it. It’s commonplace for the German side to walk all over teams, regardless of whether they are playing away from home or not. However, they face a side with the defensive nous of Atlético once in a blue moon (or twice in a calendar year) and, just as they did in April, it is fancied that the visitors will really struggle to break their opponents down.
The way in which Bayern are likely to set up should suit Atléti down to the ground. It’s almost impossible to envisage the German side coming and sitting deep, it’s just not how they play. The away side should have more of the ball and will look to play the game on the front foot. The hosts won’t be worried by this one bit, in fact, they’ll relish it, before looking to ignite their exceptionally talented forward line on the counter – a tactic that, time and time again, bears fruit for the Red-and-Whites.
Additionally, Atlético have only been beaten at home twice in their last three Champions League campaigns (17 matches) and both of those were in games where the hosts were forced to play on the front foot, something that isn’t likely to happen in this fixture. Punters should also take great confidence from Atléti’s home record against the top European teams over the last three seasons. In the last three Champions League campaigns, they’ve faced Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and Barcelona (twice) in front of a home crowd. They’ve lost none and have won three, scoring four and conceding zero goals.
All in all, there is plenty to like about Atlético’s chances in this match and, at odds of 6/5, backing them on the ‘Draw No Bet’ market is just too good an opportunity to pass up.
See more Champions League tips here.